Dev 360 | Invest in people first to ensure a secure India | Patralekha Chatterjee

India enters 2026 with a harder edge. One cannot miss the surge of voices demanding a robust projection of hard power. This shift toward an unapologetic pursuit of Hard Power Primacy is driven by a stark realisation: in a world defined by the breakdown of international norms, economic protectionism and aggressive territorial revisionism along its borders, soft power alone has become an unreliable shield. Influential voices now argue that for India to claim its place as a pole in the multipolar world, its diplomatic “voice” must be backed by the “muscle” of a high-tech military and an integrated industrial base.

Last November, the media had reported that the defence ministry could be seeking a 20 per cent hike in the defence budget for the financial year 2026-27 to modernise the armed forces in a “particularly tough neighbourhood”. With the Union Budget fast approaching, it remains a possibility -- even if historically, defence allocations rise by 8-10 per cent annually.

Amid the clamour for hard power and hard decisions, however, one key fact needs to be acknowledged. True national power in today’s fragile world is never one-dimensional. A country’s global leverage depends on the seamless integration of three pillars: technological superiority, economic might and military prowess -- and all three pillars rest on a single foundation: human capital. In an age defined by the human-machine equation -- AI, cyber resilience, advanced manufacturing and high-tech indigenisation -- hard power collapses without human power. Hardware without trained minds is hollow. The “human software” is what allows nations to design, operate, and out innovate adversaries.

“Human resources is a critical element for the military, and more so in modern warfare. Technological advances have made human resources more relevant, with precision-guided munitions and non-contact warfare gaining traction,” says Commodore C. Uday Bhaskar (Retd), director of the Society for Policy Studies, New Delhi. He retired from the Indian Navy in early 2007 after 37 years of service and has the rare distinction of having headed three think tanks.

In the years to come, he points out, human resources and its “educational and technological index” will become more important. “The days of the sturdy soldier carrying a rifle and the dumb sailor aloft the main mast are gone.” This circles back to how crucial human development is for hard power. Raw human resources taken from a pool of civilians (young recruits, cadets, Agniveers) “have to be groomed, trained and retained”, he notes. One example is cyberspace. A nation will have to tap into “both the uniformed and the civilian gene pool to effectively harness new technologies” such as cyberspace, artificial intelligence and beyond.

In short, human software will be the key requirement -- needed to design, operate and out-innovate adversaries -- making a human capital strategy essential.

“Military and technological power absolutely requires quality human resources. The United States got to where it has by investing huge resources in these areas and attracting global talent. China is another example of a country whose pre-eminence in these areas is based on huge investments in human resources and research and development. Innovation requires that. China is now investing not just in physical sciences but also social sciences. These investments are made with a long-term view, not short-term calculations. So, if you unpack the words “hard power”, key determinants would be technology and human resources that can optimally leverage it. Add social cohesion to this, and sustainable national power in the real sense assumes social cohesion,” says Niranjan Sahoo, senior fellow at the Observer Research Foundation, focusing on governance, democracy and federalism.

Economic dominance cannot be built on the brilliance of just a few outliers. India has produced exceptional individuals who lead global corporations, but their success abroad -- a secession of the successful -- only underscores the absence of a broad enough domestic pool of talent. With India ranked 130th of 193 countries in the UN Human Development Index 2025, gaps in health, nutrition, education, and skills leave millions unable to contribute. Without a broad human capital base, demographic scale will never translate into sustained hard power. It is not enough to have just those at the top of the food chain access excellent education, healthcare, nutrition.

National resilience, part of hard power, has other elements: without universal access to clean water, sanitation, quality healthcare and nutrition, India cannot build the healthy, job-ready population essential to drive innovation, attract investment and propel the country towards (and beyond) a $5 trillion economy. There have been steady improvements on many fronts, but India’s peers -- other major economies -- are far ahead in the human capital stakes.

Manoj Kewalramani, chairperson of the Indo-Pacific Research Programme and a China Studies Fellow at the Bengaluru-based Takshashila Institution, makes an interesting observation in a recent insightful guest essay. In this piece (Between Rivalry and Rapprochement: The Trials and Trajectory of India-China Relations), Kewalramani notes that both India and China have emerged as major global powers and economies. Over the past three decades, their simultaneous expansion in interests and capabilities has produced growing friction, says the author. However, one significant aspect of this economic expansion receives relatively little attention in Indian discourse: the strategic use of rapid GDP growth to advance human development.

“While both countries have experienced a simultaneous rise, the pace of this growth has been sharply uneven. Consequently, structurally, there now exists a deep power asymmetry between the two countries. In the early 1990s, India and China were near equals; today China’s economy is more than five times the size of India’s. In addition, over the years, China has been far more effective than India in channelling the gains from rapid GDP growth towards the development of human capital and hard power capabilities. For instance, China today counts as a leading innovation power, competing for global leadership in key domains of science and technology. Rapid GDP growth has also permitted China’s defence spending to expand significantly in absolute terms, while officially hovering at around 1.5 per cent of GDP…,” says Kewalramani.

Human capital is the linchpin of hard power -- transforming resources into effective military, technological and economic capabilities -- and is no less vital as the foundation of soft power. Human development must therefore be reframed not just as a social welfare goal, but as the essential strategic infrastructure underpinning technological, economic, and military pre-eminence. In a world of mounting uncertainties --geopolitical tensions, technological disruption, climate shocks -- a nation’s fortress is only as impregnable as the well-being, intelligence, creativity and morale of its people. Invest in humans first, and the rest follows with multiplied force.

The writer focuses on development issues in India and emerging economies. She can be reached at patralekha.chatterjee@gmail.com