Bhopinder Singh | Take Action Fast To Deter Nepal From Going The Bangladesh Way

As Bangladesh continues to implode and India’s disagreements with Pakistan and China continue unabated, yet another neighbour – Nepal -- meets its own tryst with destiny. Regional tumult has ensured that landlocked Nepal has almost been forgotten, but like Bangladesh, it too had a regime change led by youth protests. The consequential elections and their outcomes will impact New Delhi, as the Himalayan “buffer state” between India and China can tilt the regional equations dangerously.

The historical component of the Nepali angst against India has been the “big brother” perception of this country. The lazy usurpation of Nepal in the prevailing cultural-nationalist idea of “Akhand Bharat” (Unified India) annoys most Nepalis. Proud Nepalis would rightfully insist on their historic independence and not having been occupied/colonised by any foreign power, ever. Even during the British Raj (with the 1816 Treaty of Sugauli), the British did not rule or administer Nepal directly. There was simply no British colonial governor, Army, or bureaucracy (except for a resident diplomat) to govern this “martial” race, which had acquitted itself with fine gallantry, irrespective of the fact that the fierce Gorkhas served in their own Royalist Army, the British Army, or subsequently even in the Indian Army.

Over the years, Nepalis increasingly believe that Delhi harbours a paternalistic and interventionist (especially in politics) sense of entitlement, which makes India view Nepal as a vassal state. Ironically, with the civilisational and co-cultural/religio commonality besetting the two nations, most Nepalis believe that they deserve more respect, and they simultaneously believe that instead, New Delhi expects deference.

Therefore, all governments in Nepal, irrespective of their ideological moorings (including during the monarchy’s rule earlier) had to demonstrate “spine” against India. Later, the local combination of anti-monarchical sentiments and the ideological support of the baiting Chinese led to the Leftist forces storming the centre stage. The infamous “blockade” of 2015 (which was denied by India), in the eyes of most people in Nepal, did not help in perceptions of India, neither did other factors like the intransigence shown in converting Indian rupee notes in Nepal following the November 2016 demonetisation, or the implications of the Agniveer scheme. This naturally bred a further tilt towards the Chinese, on the rebound. But over years, the interchanging rule by the competing Leftist forces of the K.P. Sharma Oli-versus-Prachanda camps started getting discredited in the eyes of the Nepalis.

Typically, the Leftist forces ride on the youth expectations of equality, justice, employment and welfare schemes -- but what has happened since 2008 when Leftist rule started (with three short interludes by the rival Nepali Congress) is that a sense of despondency, frustration, and “sameness” has crept in. Like in Bangladesh, it is the youth frustration that has inflicted a literal coup that ousted the once-powerful Prime Minister Oli. The final nail in the coffin was apparently the attempt to muzzle dissent and free speech by intimidating contrarian views on the social media. Like in Bangladesh, the underlying issues of unemployment, corruption and democratic backsliding wereendemic and growing. But unlike Bangladesh, where the angst was directed against a partisan force and an individual, meaning the Awami League led by Sheikh Hasina, in Nepal it was against the collective class of politicians, be it in the ruling coalition, or even those in the Opposition.

In Kathmandu, unlike Dhaka, the Opposition parties had no role in scaling the unrest. Second, the unrest has not necessarily metastasized into acquiring an overtly religious overtone, or even an “anti-India” slant.

This is both a concern and opportunity for India to ensure that a repeat of the Bangladesh-style backlash is avoided. Now, under an interim government led by the relatively apolitical (again, unlike Bangladesh situation) Prime Minister Sushila Karki, general elections in Nepal are due to be held on March 5, 2026. Virtually, a new platform of youth leadership that either cuts across the existing partisan lines or is completely organic and based on social issues has now emerged, which will play a decisive role in the forthcoming elections. They are less ideologically rooted, and more predicated on practicality, reforms, and liberal preferences. When evaluated from the binary lens of “pro-China” or “pro-India”, they are not expected to be “pro-China” overwhelmingly, as was mostly the case with Leftist coalitions.

Among prominent candidates tipped as possible future Prime Ministers is the popular mayor of Kathmandu, Balendra Shah, an independent former engineer who dabbled as a rapper. He has a natural appeal amongst the youth and his mayoral performance and oratory has been drawing crowds. Second, a seasoned bureaucrat with a strong track record of performance, Kulman Ghising, enjoys broad civil support. Third, a possible continuation of the interim head and consensus choice, Sushila Karki, whose anti-corruption reputation could be bolstered with a free and fair election under her leadership, who can become a consensus choice, with continuity playing as a factor. Lastly, the leader of the Rashtriya Swatantra Party (RSP), Rabi Lamichhane, can emerge as the proverbial “dark horse”, should his party do well at the hustings.

What is important is that none of these leaders has any axe to grind with India, except to uphold the dignity and sovereign pride of Nepal and its sensitivities. India must keep an avowed “distance” and offer support to whichever leader emerges, as Nepal is ready for a “reset”, where historical issues are expected to take a back seat and socio-economic development becomes paramount. Co-option with grace and dignity will go a long way to avoiding the situation of the past, or even regressing to becoming another Bangladesh.

The writer is a retired lieutenant-general and a former lieutenant-governor of the Andaman and Nicobar Islands and Puducherry