Abhijit Bhattacharyya | How Dhaka-Beijing-Pak Axis Poses Threat to Delhi

The China-Bangladesh joint communiqué issued in Beijing in late June requires some background check to get the bigger picture of perfidy and malevolence of an unholy trio: of these two countries along with Pakistan. The chronology clearly reveals how the Dragon has initiated a fresh destructive and disruptive game, along with two ardent disciples, Dhaka and Islamabad, against India.

When, therefore, Pakistan and China, the “all-weather friends”, included J&K in a joint statement in Beijing on May 26, India’s external affairs ministry spokesman “rejected” the unwarranted reference to Indian territory and lambasted the so-called China-Pakistan Economic Corridor passing through India's land, brazenly violating New Delhi’s sovereignty. On June 22, however, Beijing unleashed its charm offensive: Chinese foreign minister Wang Yi parroted the familiar line that China and India are “partners, not rivals”, while addressing a press conference in New Delhi during a Brics NSAs’ meeting. He went on to add that it was “imperative” for both sides to respect each other’s “core interests” (without defining what these core interests were). India, as the host nation, reciprocated in same spirit, saying the “India-China discussions were constructive and forward-looking” (despite New Delhi being undercut by Beijing). New Delhi then “underlined stable, predictable, constructive bilateral relations contributing to building of trust and better understanding between the two sides”.

In true Nehruvian style, New Delhi walked that extra mile to “improve” India-China ties, reminiscent of the “Hindi-Chini Bhai-Bhai” spirit of the pre-1962 days. But the real gift from India came within 48 hours. The Government of India’s procurement policy division, under the finance ministry’s department of expenditure, issued an order on June 24 allowing four companies with Chinese ownership or links to bid for projects tendered by India government in the power sector.

God help India! New Delhi’s warm response was entirely a one-way affair, In stark contrast to China’s surreptitious “no entry” to all sensitive sectors! Henry Paulson, former US treasury secretary, pointedly noted in “Dealing with China” that the Dragon’s state-owned enterprises (akin to India’s PSUs) would only “dominate defence, electricity, oil, petrochemicals, telecommunications, coal, aviation and shipping”. Given that, India’s conduct is truly bizarre!

Will India be able to deter smaller neighbours, now subject to Chinese influence, from targeting India on both its western and eastern flanks?

Making things more complicated, within 48 hours of the Indian government’s June 24 order came the joint communiqué of Bangladesh’s new Prime Minister Tarique Rahman and China’s President Xi Jinping in Beijing on June 26. In a flash, China’s PLA Navy virtually came closest to India’s territorial waters, posing a major threat to India’s safety, security and sovereignty.

This should not surprise or shock Indians because New Delhi invariably shows supreme courage of conviction to either forget or feign ignorance of each anti-India step by the Dragon. There is nothing to indicate that India will change course anytime soon.

Consequently, whatever new hostility is perpetrated by the Dragon’s dictator Xi Jinping against India, Beijing will inevitably escape from any retribution; with China on the prowl across three continents of Asia, Europe and Africa for over 15 years.

Today’s Beijing-Dhaka bonhomie is, however, a direct challenge to Indian sovereignty. The “Bangladesh-China-India-Myanmar” (BCIM) corridor stands substituted by “China-Myanmar-Bangladesh Economic Corridor” (CMBC), effectively shutting the door to India’s 1990 “Look East Policy”. Now, along with land, comes the maritime geography, where Mongla port (80 km from the West Bengal border) goes to China on a platter. Imagine! The Chinese PLA Navy using and operating from Mongla, 188 km from Kolkata, 220 km from Haldia, will put the entire eastern coastline, right up to Chennai and beyond, under direct Chinese naval surveillance.

Will New Delhi tolerate this state of affairs? Should not Dhaka be clearly told that ignoring Delhi’s core national interests, affecting harmony, peace and prosperity in South Asia, will come at a very heavy cost?

It’s high time that India takes a firm stand. Drastic changes must be made in military deployment, especially naval assets and its command structure. Thus, if the Beijing-Bangladesh axis tries to interfere in India’s North Bengal narrow axis, the Indian Navy should be ready for a full force assault covering the entire 386-nautical mile Bangladesh coastline and totally choke its five ports.

Geography holds lessons in strategy. “If you dare mess with my land, I’ll strangulate your marine access to the outside world for commerce and trade, imports and exports. This is what India did in December 1971 to Karachi and Chittagong.” If Dhaka allows the Chinese Navy to operate in close proximity to a friendly neighbour of India, by embracing a remote land with an aggressive imperial propensity, it should be prepared for the consequences.

This columnist had written in this newspaper in March 2024: “The Navy must prepare to expand and strengthen teeth by upgrading all its bases. Two frontier states, Bengal and Gujarat, must be urgently upgraded with two fleets (not necessarily under a three-star command officer), with independent ops responsibility and high-tech assets. The Chinese have already penetrated deep into all three (India’s) neighbouring navies -- Bangladesh, Myanmar and Pakistan.”

With Beijing eyeing all of South Asia ports around India, New Delhi must launch its own “forward deployment” owing to its in-built advantage as, unlike the US and British navies, it does not have to be located 10,000 km away from its own “forward bases”.

New Delhi must clearly spell out to Dhaka that any Chinese naval presence close to our borders and coastline cannot be tolerated. Of course, all those familiar with China will tell you that its strategy varies from country to country. In India, it is well aware of the presence of a large trading community who aim to import Chinese goods in bulk, even if sub-standard, and then sell them for a fat profit. Every Indian today must closely study the world atlas. India is almost encircled by the Dragon, and surrounded by countries who have made their own deals with Beijing, such as through the BRI, taking advantage of New Delhi’s declining relationship with the neighbourhood. Both Pakistan and Bangladesh depend on China for anything up to 75-80 per cent of their weaponry. The prime target of the Dragon’s imperialism, through surprise, deception, lies, deceit and a diplomatic charm offensive, is always “soft” India, though Beijing’s “revenge of history” mission is really aimed at the West.

Indians still blame Nehru’s China “appeasement”. Six decades later, then, why is India more Nehru-like than pre-1962 Nehru? Has India forgotten China’s active support for Pakistan in 2025’s Operation Sindoor?

The writer is an alumnus of the National Defence College, New Delhi. The views expressed here are personal.