Verdict 2018, Impact 2019: Focus on people's issues, not personalities

First, the exit polls were on the right track: Let me begin with the average of Poll of Polls, i.e., the average of all exit polls done on assembly elections this time. For Chhattisgarh, figures were BJP 41 Cong 43 BSP and others 6. Madhya Pradesh: Average of Poll of Polls: BJP 109, Cong 111, BSP and others 10. Rajasthan: Average of Poll of Polls: BJP 78, Cong 110, BSP and others: 11. Telengana: Average of Poll of Polls: BJP 5 Cong 39 TRS 67 Others 8. Mizoram Average of Poll of Polls: Cong 16 MNF 18 Others 6. So, broadly, the results show that the exit polls were on track, though the extent of the wins in Chhattisgarh, Mizoram and Telengana was not predicted. 

Second, all tall faces were on the wane except for Telengana: BJP in recent times has been attempting to presidentialise all elections in states, sometimes putting Prime Minister Narendra Modi on the forefront and this time the state chief ministers (CM) ahead where there is a strong face, while Congress in most places (except in Punjab) did not have a strong face portrayed as the CM-in-waiting. That has not worked for BJP this time around.

The Jan Ashirwad Yatra of MP CM Shivraj Chauhan was dropped mid-way due to the absence of any popular support. From Vyapam to local level corruption, Chauhan's image had already taken a hit. Even Rajasthan CM Vasundhara Raje’s electoral yatra was stopped mid-path facing slogans like 'Modi sey bair nahi, Rani teri khair nahi' (No enmity with Modi, no love lost for Rani). Dr Raman Singh has a larger than life image in Chhattisgarh but that did not help him save the day facing anti-incumbency against his ministers and MLAs.

Third, double anti-incumbency spelt the doom for BJP: The anti-incumbency against CM Vasundhara Raje Scindia has been tidal. Whether about her legendary arrogance even with her own ministers and MLAs, her inaccessibility, her policy paralysis on major issues of public life, her focus only on the urban educated elite given her royal background, etc, the media and public opinion was extremely critical for the last two years.

There was the double anti-incumbency as well.  The crafts, stones, agri-products and other small businesses were affected adversely with demonetisation as they have been dependent on a cash-driven economy, and also by GST with multi layers. Joblessness for educated youths, no MSP for the farming community, fuel price rise affecting famers and urban middle class alike et al emanating from Central government policies also contributed to the debacle.

In MP, people were agitated with the agrarian crisis (specially, the Mandsaur firing on farmers), joblessness and failure on the law and order front. Over and above this, demonetisation harmed the cash-dependent rural economy as the digital infrastructure is abysmal in the hinterland. The GST with five layers put small traders and SME sector in a situation of high stress as well. And, furthermore, fuel price rise in the months ahead of the polls had led to high price-rise of commodities as well.

While voters may not have been totally disenchanted with the Chaul Baba, as Chhattisgarh CM Dr Raman Singh is often called for his cheap rice and good PDS system, they were surely disenchanted with many elected MLAs of the BJP and nepotism at lower levels. Further, the central policies of demonetisation ruining cash-driven rural and tribal economy, and five-layered GST troubling small and medium enterprises, apart from rise of fuel prices making living expensive and retail sales down, led to the a double anti-incumbency.

Fourth, an unusually united Congress faced an unusually disunited BJP: From Chattisgarh where Congress is divided between leader of Opposition TS Singh Deo and Tamradhwaj Sahu, to MP where the local Congress bosses are Kamalnath, Jyotiraditya Scindia and former CM Digvijay Singh, to Rajasthan where the rivalry has been between former CM Ashok Gehlot and state Congress president Sachin Pilot: the grand old party presented a picture of bonhomie within. Whatever happens ahead, the campaign was fought with low resources but high brotherhood by Congress.

Whereas BJP, especially in Rajasthan, was a bitterly divided lot. Suicidal for them has been the conflict that CM Vasundhara Raje and her coterie has been having with the Modi-Shah leadership of BJP to the extent that she did not allow Shah man Gajendra Singh Sekhawat to take over as BJP state president.

Fifth, surely it is a shot in the arm of Congress and Rahul Gandhi: Interestingly, December 11 last year was the day when Rahul Gandhi was formally elected as the Congress President, and exactly one year later, three Hindi heartland states register Congress win under his leadership. His claim to the leadership of the united opposition has just got a fillip. However, he would need to be cautious in first selection of his CMs in the three winning states as there are several claimants and this can be tricky. And second, he needs to cautiously avoid the arrogance that may creep into the party and take an accommodative stance with allies and even seek new allies. A case in point here is Ajit Jogi who now wants to return to Congress, and another in point is Mayawati's BSP which has not made a major mark but is getting some 10 seats across the three states of Hindi heartland this time. Congress needs to do business with both of them, and many more like them, with dignity and space for them.

Sixth, the politics of alliances has also got a shot in the arm: The Congress, emboldened with the three states, will need to cement the opposition mahagatbandhan by consolidating the involvement of sulking opposition parties like Samajwadi Party and Bahujan Samaj Party apart from the 21 parties which have met a day earlier. BJP, on its side, needs to expand its alliance after losing 12 parties so far from NDA, the latest being Upendra Khushwaha's RSLP. It needs to add new NDA partners like TRS in Telengana, Biju Janata Dal in Odisha, AIADMK in Tamil Nadu, et al.