Rajya Sabha Polls Place Naveen Patnaik at a Crucial Crossroads

 Bhubaneswar: With the Rajya Sabha elections scheduled for April, political activity in Odisha has gathered pace, even as the Biju Janata Dal (BJD) remains conspicuously tight-lipped about its strategy. While both the BJP and the Congress have begun signalling their moves, former chief minister and BJD president Naveen Patnaik has maintained a studied silence, triggering intense speculation across the state’s political spectrum.

Four Rajya Sabha seats from Odisha are due to fall vacant. Under the existing numerical configuration in the Assembly, a candidate will require 31 first-preference votes to secure election. The BJD, by virtue of its strength, can comfortably ensure the victory of one nominee and will still be left with nearly 19 surplus votes. How these votes are eventually deployed could prove decisive in shaping the outcome of the remaining seats.

The arithmetic has opened up the possibility of a tactical understanding between the BJD and the Congress, which has 14 MLAs. A combined effort could potentially block the BJP from securing the fourth seat. Odisha Congress president Bhakta Charan Das has sought an appointment with Patnaik to explore the prospects of coordination, though there has been no affirmative response so far from the BJD leadership.

Patnaik’s silence has added to the intrigue, particularly given the BJD’s track record of maintaining a careful equidistance from national parties. Despite positioning itself as a political rival of the BJP in the state, the BJD has, on several occasions, extended support to BJP-backed candidates and key legislative initiatives at the national level, including presidential and parliamentary leadership elections. Party leaders have consistently defended this approach as being guided by Odisha’s interests rather than ideological considerations.

Political observers note that this balancing act has allowed the BJD to retain its regional autonomy while keeping channels open with the Centre. At the same time, it has fuelled criticism that the party often opts for tactical accommodation under pressure from the BJP’s central leadership, particularly in high-stakes Rajya Sabha contests.

Adding another layer of complexity is the suspension of MLAs Sanatan Mahakud and Arvind Mohapatra. Their status introduces uncertainty into the voting arithmetic.

“Should the party issue a whip and the suspended legislators choose to defy it during the Rajya Sabha election, the episode could expose internal fault lines and raise questions about the leadership’s grip over the organisation. While suspended MLAs remain bound by party directives within the Assembly, Rajya Sabha elections follow a distinct procedure, leaving scope for political manoeuvring. Any act of defiance could potentially lead to expulsion, freeing the legislators from party constraints and altering political alignments ahead of future electoral battles,” observed political observer Prasanna Kumar Mohanty.

For Naveen Patnaik, said Mohanty, the forthcoming Rajya Sabha election is more than a routine exercise in numbers. It represents a test of political judgment at a time when the BJD is reassessing its role in a rapidly evolving national landscape.

“A misstep could dent perceptions of authority, while a well-calibrated move could reaffirm the party’s standing as a decisive regional force with influence beyond the state,” added the political observer.