India’s GDP Estimate Raised to 7.6% Under New Base Year

 New Delhi: The government on Friday said that India’s economy measured in terms of gross domestic product (GDP) grew 7.8 per cent in October-December from the same period a year earlier, while it has also raised the growth estimate to 7.6 per cent for the current fiscal from 7.4 per cent after the government revised the calculation methodology, including change in base year. However, the government has added the data in the new series from goods and services tax (GST) and e-Vahan portal, to better reflect economic activities in the country.

Replacing the previous series with a base year of 2011-12, the ministry of statistics and programme implementation (MoSPI), however, issued the new series of annual and quarterly national accounts estimates with the base year 2022-23. As per the new series, the GDP is estimated to grow at 7.6 per cent during the current fiscal, as against 7.4 per cent in the advance estimates released by the ministry in January.

Besides, the growth rate for the July-September period of 2025-26 has been revised upwards to 8.4 per cent from 8.2 per cent in the new series. Reacting to the new GDP series, India’s chief economic advisor (CEA) V Anantha Nageswaran, however, said that the economic growth projection for the next fiscal has been revised upwards by 20 basis points to 7-7.4 per cent.

“We are improving our GDP growth outlook for FY27 from 6.8 to 7.2 previously to 7 to 7.4 per cent under the new series. The economy is more likely to achieve a number closer to 7.4 per cent rather than 7 per cent,” Nageswaran said while briefing the media on the release of the new series.

Generally, GDP is the primary indicator used to measure the size of an economy and its growth rate. To calculate real growth, statisticians compare output in different years after removing inflation. This requires selecting a reference point called the base year. But now, India has shifted its GDP base year to 2022-23, meaning future real growth calculations will be measured relative to price levels in that year. This is the eighth revision of India’s national accounts base year.

Boasting of the country’s economy, the CEA also said that India is on course to becoming the top three or the top four largest economies in the world. “There is no doubt about that. It will happen in the course of the next few years. Our growth rate post covid has been probably one of the best if not the best in the world, especially among G20 economies,” he said.

Nageswaran further said that whether a particular relative position is reached or not, it will also depend on many other factors, like the exchange rate, which, in India's case, did not go in our favour in 2025-26. “That will naturally have an impact. So the timing, given global uncertainty, given what happens to exchange rates, and the growth rates in other countries could be variable,” he said.

Based on current indicators, he said, nominal GDP growth would be close to 11 per cent and the size of the economy would comfortably cross $4 trillion-mark. “The Indian economy continues to maintain strong growth momentum, supported by broad-based activities,” he said, adding that as per the new series, GDP is likely to grow at 7.6 per cent during 2025-26, up from 7.1 per cent in the previous fiscal.

As per the MoSPI data in the new series, real GDP or GDP at constant prices is estimated to attain a level of Rs 322.58 lakh crore in the FY 2025-26, against the first revised estimate (FRE) of GDP for the year 2024-25 of Rs 299.89 lakh crore. “The growth rate in Real GDP during 2025-26 is estimated at 7.6 per cent as compared to 7.1 per cent in 2024-25,” the ministry said.

The series provides the 'Second Advance Estimates of Annual GDP for FY 2025-26' and 'Quarterly Estimates of GDP from Q1 (April-June) of FY 2022-23 to Q3 (October-December) of FY 2025-26'. “Nominal GDP has witnessed a growth of 8.6 per cent during 2025-26. These growth rates are revised upward from their respective first advance estimates computed using previous base year (2011-12),” it said.

The ministry further said that the economy has exhibited sustained performance, recording real GDP growth rates of 7.2 per cent and 7.1 per cent, respectively, during 2023-24 and 2024-25. Nominal GDP has registered 11 per cent and 9.7 per cent growth rates during 2023-24 and 2024-25, respectively. “Manufacturing sector has been the major driver in contributing to the resilient performance of the economy in consecutive three financial years after re-basing. This sector has attained double-digit growth rates in 2023-24 and 2025-26,” it added.