El Nino Poses Risk To Rabi Crops, Warns Centre

The coming rabi season is likely to be challenging for rainfed areas because of the El Nino weather pattern, and foodgrain production could be affected, Union agriculture secretary Atish Chandra said on Monday.

At the same conference, agriculture minister Shivraj Singh Chouhan said Maharashtra, Karnataka, Telangana and Andhra Pradesh needed crop plans based on water availability and soil moisture, with separate strategies for rainfed and irrigated areas. Delayed sowing could affect germination and productivity, making advance preparation essential, he said.

Addressing the two-day national conference on rabi preparedness, Chandra said the kharif season had also been difficult, particularly in rainfed areas. Several states had struggled first to bring land under cultivation and later to keep crops alive.

“We are seeing that in the coming season, production is likely to be affected to a large extent. And the rabi season will also be challenging for the rainfed areas,” he said.

Some states could face excess soil moisture, while areas that received insufficient rain might experience prolonged stress, Chandra said. Rabi plans would have to be adjusted to those different conditions.

According to the latest forecast by the International Research Institute for Climate and Society at Columbia University, El Niño is strengthening and could become “very strong” in late 2026 and early 2027. Its impact on kharif crops appears limited overall, although some rainfed regions were affected. Its effects could be more pronounced during rabi sowing, which normally begins in October.

Chandra said climate change was already affecting agriculture, with untimely and heavy rain damaging crops even in irrigated areas. “We used to think that we would face the challenges of climate change later. But now we see the changes happening, and they are happening at a fast pace,” he said.

Chouhan asked every state and district to assess irrigation water and soil moisture before finalising crop plans. Although rainfall had been below normal, it was unlikely to severely affect water availability nationally, he said. Shortages in some states, however, remained a concern.

“There should be no situation where a crop requiring more water is sown and adequate water is subsequently unavailable, resulting in crop losses,” Chouhan said.

The minister expressed concern about drought conditions in Maharashtra and Karnataka. He said nearly two-thirds of Maharashtra had been affected and the state had declared a drought, while Karnataka faced drought-like conditions. A Central team would visit Karnataka on October 3 for a ground assessment, and another would be sent to Maharashtra, he said.

Chandra called for crop diversification to reduce dependence on imports of pulses, oilseeds and some horticultural produce. He said diversification should go hand in hand with sustainable agriculture, and government programmes should be assessed by their effect on farmers’ incomes rather than subsidy disbursal alone.

He also called for better farm infrastructure to reduce losses and more reliable data on crop production and land coverage. Farmer IDs linked to land records would help bring cultivators into the planning system, he said.