India’s Fertility Dips Below Replacement
“India has made remarkable progress in reducing fertility — from nearly five children per woman in 1970 to about two today — thanks to better education and improved access to reproductive healthcare,” :Andrea M. Wojnar, UNFPA India Representative.;
NEW DELHI: India’s population is projected to reach 1.46 billion in 2025, retaining its position as the most populous country in the world, according to a report released by the United Nations Population Fund’s (UNFPA). It also noted that India's total fertility rate has now dropped below the replacement level, which means the country’s next generation will not have enough numbers to replace the older generation, resulting in a population decline.
According to UNFPA’s State of World Population Report, India's fertility rate has fallen to 1.9 births per woman (190 births per 100 women), which is below the replacement rate of 2.1. This indicated that, in the absence of migration, the current generation of families were having fewer children than required to maintain the population size across generations.
Despite the decline, India still has a youthful demographic: 24 per cent of the population is aged 0–14, 17 per cent is within the 10-19 bracket, and 26 per cent falls in the 10–24 age range.
The report said that 68 per cent of the Indian population was in the working-age group of 15–64, offering the potential for a demographic dividend, if jobs are created for them. The elderly persons, aged 65 and above, account for seven per cent of the population, a proportion expected to rise steadily as life expectancy improves. By 2025, average life expectancy is projected to reach 71 years for men and 74 for women. The population is expected to grow to nearly 1.7 billion before beginning to decline by the year 2065.
The report advised Indian policymakers against panicking over falling fertility and instead wants them to address the unmet reproductive goals of people.
“Millions of people are not able to realise their real fertility goals. This is the real crisis, not underpopulation or overpopulation, and the answer lies in greater reproductive agency — a person's ability to make free and informed 150 per cent choices about sex, contraception and starting a family,” the report explained.
The UNFPA report categorises India among middle-income nations undergoing rapid demographic transitions, with its population doubling time now estimated at 79 years.
“India has made remarkable progress in reducing fertility — from nearly five children per woman in 1970 to about two today — thanks to better education and improved access to reproductive healthcare,” said Andrea M. Wojnar, UNFPA India Representative.
“This shift has led to dramatic declines in maternal mortality, meaning millions more mothers are alive today to raise their children and strengthen communities. Still, deep disparities persist across states, castes, and income groups.”
“India’s real demographic dividend lies in ensuring that everyone, regardless of background, has the freedom and resources to make informed reproductive choices. The country now has a powerful opportunity to demonstrate how reproductive rights and economic development can go hand in hand,” she said.