Normal monsoon forecast for Karnataka, to reach by May-end
Although less rain is expected in July, the deficit could be made up by excess rain in June and September.
Bengaluru: There's hope for farmers grappling with the drought in state as the Karnataka State Natural Disaster Monitoring Centre (KSNDMC) believes it could not only have a normal or close to normal South West Monsoon this year based on the forecasts of four agencies, but an early monsoon as well. Going by its director, Srinivasa Reddy, the monsoon ,which usually hits the state by the first week of June, could arrive by the last week of May this year.
He explained that although KSNDMC did not have its own forecast system, it had come to these conclusions based on the reports of the Sathish Dawan Space Centre, ISRO, Centre for Mathematical Modelling and Computer Simulation (CMMACS), the Indian private forecaster, Skymet and the Indian Meteorological Department. “On compiling these reports we have concluded that the South West Monsoon will be normal or close to normal this year, bringing relief to the state’s farmers,” he said, noting that the pre-monsoon showers had arrived on time and were not deficit.
“Although the rainfall in July is expected to be below normal, the excess rain in June will make up for the shortfall. Farmers don’t need to worry as the monsoon will be uniformly distributed, ensuring their crops’ survival, “ Mr Reddy added. In his view although El Nino (the warming of ocean surface temperature in the eastern and central Pacific) has become volatile, the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) will counter it, resulting in normal rainfall across the state.