Who Will Win Bihar Assembly elections?

As Bihar counts down to its 2025 Assembly election result, one question dominates political circles, chai shops, newsrooms and party offices alike: Will voters choose continuity under the National Democratic Alliance (NDA) or opt for change through the Mahagathbandhan (MGB)?

On one side stands the Nitish Kumar–led JD(U) in partnership with the BJP, seeking yet another term. On the other is Tejashwi Yadav, the face of the MGB, promising a generational shift in leadership and a fresh political direction.

Exit Polls Tilt Towards NDA

Most exit polls released ahead of counting day have predicted a clear edge for the NDA. Some surveys show the alliance comfortably crossing the majority mark, while others forecast a tighter contest but still give the ruling bloc an advantage. The broad consensus: the NDA is better placed to form the next government.

Early trends, too, reflect a similar pattern, with the alliance leading across several constituencies. The momentum appears to be on the side of Nitish Kumar and his partners.

Why the NDA Has the Upper Hand

Several factors work in favour of the NDA this time:

Governance Narrative

Nitish Kumar’s long-standing pitch of “sushasan” (good governance) continues to resonate with segments of the electorate. Improvements in welfare schemes, law-and-order stability and social development initiatives seem to have strengthened the continuity argument.

Women’s Turnout

A noticeable surge in women voters has been observed across districts. Since many welfare schemes and prohibition policies are perceived to benefit women directly, the NDA stands to gain from this demographic.

Fragmented Opposition Space

While the MGB remains the primary challenger, newer players and local independents have sliced into the anti-incumbency vote bank. Parties like Jan Suraaj attracted attention but may struggle to convert that visibility into seat wins, indirectly helping the NDA.

Where the Mahagathbandhan Still Stands Strong*

Yet, the story is not one-sided.

The Appeal of Change

After many years under the same leadership, sections of young voters and groups seeking economic transformation see Tejashwi Yadav as a symbol of change. His focus on job creation and employment resonates strongly.

Loyal Social Base

The MGB has a deeply rooted base across several communities that could consolidate effectively, especially with heightened turnout.

High Voter Participation

Higher-than-usual voter turnout always introduces unpredictability. If the MGB’s support surged in pocket districts, the margins in many seats could swing.

The Likely Outcome

Weighing all indicators, the NDA appears positioned to return to power, possibly with a comfortable majority. The alliance seems to have benefitted from narrative control, disciplined booth-level management, and favourable demographic trends.

However, Bihar elections are known for close fights and last-minute shifts. While the MGB may not be on track to form the government, it could still post a stronger-than-expected performance in key regions and consolidate its role as a formidable opposition block.

What to Watch Closely

* Whether the NDA crosses the majority mark decisively

* How JD(U) and BJP individually perform within the alliance

* The swing districts where the fight is neck-and-neck

* The impact of first-time voters and women voters

* Whether new entrants can upset established vote patterns

As things stand, Bihar seems inclined toward continuity rather than change. The NDA is the frontrunner in the race to form the next government, though the final picture will only emerge when every vote is counted.