Oscars 2019: Snubs, surprises, plus the new best-picture frontrunner!

The Academy Award nominations were announced Tuesday morning, and the awards season favorites (mostly) emerged triumphant, though there were a few snubs and surprises, too.

“Roma” (Alfonso Cuaron’s black-and-white Netflix film from Mexico) and “The Favourite” (Yorgos Lanthimos’ caustic costume drama) were the leaders, each scoring 10 nominations, including best picture and best director.

They were followed by fellow best picture nominees “A Star Is Born” and “Vice,” which got eight nominations apiece. “Black Panther,” also up for best picture (a first for a comic book movie), scored seven nominations.

The three additional best picture nominees are “BlacKkKlansman” (six nominations), “Bohemian Rhapsody” (five nominations) and “Green Book” (five).

Despite its relative want of nominations, “Green Book” appears to be our new best-picture frontrunner, over earlier favorites “Roma” and “A Star Is Born.”

For two reasons:

1. “Green Book” just won the Producers Guild award, which has correctly predicted the best picture eight out of the last 10 years.

2. The Academy nominated “Green Book” for best editing but overlooked “Roma” and “Star Is Born” in the category, and it’s pretty rare for a film to win best picture without getting a best editing nomination. Since 1934, only 10 films have won the best picture without at least getting a nomination for editing.

“Green Book” rising to the top of the heap, especially amidst the recent controversy surrounding it, is a late-season surprise. Though a lot can happen between now and the Feb. 24 ceremony.

There were a handful of other surprises big and small throughout the nominations. The biggest has to be Bradley Cooper (“A Star Is Born”) getting passed over for best director, as he at one point appeared to be a frontrunner in the category. (Though he still earned best actor nomination.) His presumed director spot went to a surprise nominee: Pawel Pawlikowski, director of the Polish film “Cold War,” which also scored nominations for best foreign language film and best cinematography.

Besides Cooper, the most shocking snub was the Fred Rogers doc “Won’t You Be My Neighbor?” not getting nominated for best documentary.

Other snubs/surprises:

» Timothée Chalamet got no recognition for his “Beautiful Boy” performance, despite getting a SAG and Golden Globe nomination

» “First Man” got screwed out of the above-the-line categories. It got some much-deserved recognition for its technical merits, but Ryan Gosling and Claire Foy’s performances were ignored. Marina de Tavira (“Roma”) getting nominated over Foy for best supporting actress was unexpected.

» “The Ballad of Buster Scruggs” got nominated for three awards: best adapted screenplay, best costumes, best song. That’s a much better run than anyone was anticipating for the Coens’ Western.

» And in the most egregious (but not most surprising) snub of the day, Ethan Hawke was passed over for his role in “First Reformed,” easily the best male performance of last year. But whadayagonnado?

Stray observations

» The Oscars have both a more populist and international flavor than usual this year. For starters, “Roma” still stands a good shot at winning best picture and an even better one at winning best director. It’s rare for a foreign-language film to get a best picture nomination, let alone be among the most-nominated films. Poland’s “Cold War” and Germany’s “Never Look Away” likewise got attention outside of the best foreign language film category.

» In terms of populism, the Oscars have at long last nominated a comic book movie for best picture: “Black Panther.” But their populist streak didn’t stop there. The category also includes a trio of crowd-pleasing hits produced by a major studio: “Bohemian Rhapsody,” “Green Book” and “A Star Is Born.”

» Win or lose, “Roma” is a triumph for Netflix. The streaming giant has been trying to break into the Oscar race for years, finally winning an award last year: for the doping documentary “Icarus.” But a movie getting 10 nominations sets a new precedent for streaming services. Look for Netflix to expand its already ambitious program of feature films in the future. Netflix also did well with its Coen brothers Western, “The Ballad of Buster Scruggs.” Elsewhere in streaming, Hulu got a best-doc nomination for its superb coming-of-age film “Minding the Gap.”

» The main takeaway, I suppose, is that the Academy has actually done a better-than-usual job at recognizing diversity this year — in race and nationality, sure, but also in the many ways in which people are now watching good movies: be it at the mall multiplex, the arthouse theater or from the comfort of the living room sofa.