Russian Oil Purchases by Unknown Indian Buyers Goes Up in Dec
Nayara Energy, partly owned by Rosneft, remains anchored to Russian supply. Among other buyer countries, Chinese purchases have dropped and Turkey is finding alternatives.
Chennai: In the last two weeks since US sanctions on Russian refiners came into effect, crude oil arrivals from Russia averaged 1.5 Mbd against 1.75 Mbd in 2024. The purchases by "unknown" Indian buyers have gone up to more than one-third of the total purchases, as per the data of Kpler.
Two weeks after the US sanctions on Rosneft and Lukoil came into effect, the physical market for Russian crude has fractured, but has not broken. India’s arrivals from Russia average 1.5 Mbd month-to-date, with predictive flows pointing to a potential rise to 1.6 Mbd. This remains below the 2024 average of 1.75 Mbd, but the decline is modest at 250 kbd.
As per the data of buyers from India, the share of buyers termed by Kpler as "unknown" has gone up by several fold in December. "Unknown buyers" had surfaced in November, but their share was small. Unknown buyers accounted for more than one-third of the purchases in December. Shares of all other buyers were lower in December compared to November.
India’s state refiners Indian Oil Corporation and Bharat Petroleum continued lifting Russian crude. Mangalore Refinery and Petrochemicals and HPCL have stepped back from buying.
Kpler finds that Reliance's Russian crude import is likely to decline as Jamnagar will gradually wind down its intake of Russian crude, even though two cargoes were discharged last week. “However, given the new ICE regulations, ongoing OFAC sanctions, and the broader pressure surrounding Russian crude imports, our base case remains that Jamnagar will gradually wind down its intake of Russian crude. These recent arrivals do not necessarily signal a structural shift in buying patterns, and we still expect purchases to taper as refiners adjust to the evolving sanctions landscape,” it said.
Nayara Energy, partly owned by Rosneft, remains anchored to Russian supply. Among other buyer countries, Chinese purchases have dropped and Turkey is finding alternatives.
Meanwhile, the Ural oil from Russia delivered into India’s west coast traded at a steady $6.50/bbl discount, compared to $2/bbl prior to the sanctions.