ILO Cuts 2025 Job Growth Forecast by 7 Million Amid Tariff Uncertainty
ILO has projected the creation of 53 million jobs in 2025 instead of the previously estimated 60 million
By : Sangeetha G
Update: 2025-05-29 12:17 GMT
The International Labour Organization (ILO) has revised its global employment generation forecast for 2025, lowering it by 7 million jobs from its earlier estimate due to the tariff uncertainties. Of this, the Asia Pacific region accounts for the reduction of 4 million jobs.
ILO has projected the creation of 53 million jobs in 2025 instead of the previously estimated 60 million. This translates into a reduction in global employment growth from 1.7 per cent to 1.5 per cent this year.
The drop – which is the equivalent of around seven million fewer additional jobs – reflects a downgraded global economic outlook, as GDP growth is expected at 2.8 per cent, down from a previous projection of 3.2 per cent.
Around 84 million workers across 71 countries whose employment is linked to consumer demand in the United States face elevated risks of disruption due to higher tariffs and trade uncertainty.
The estimated shortfall of 7 million workers is especially concerning considering the global jobs gap – defined as the number of people who would like a job but currently do not have one – which is estimated to reach 407 million people in 2025.
Employment in Asia and the Pacific region was previously expected to grow by 1.9 per cent or 38 million employed people in 2025, the current forecast predicts employment to grow by a more modest 1.7 per cent or by 34 million – a drop of 4 million jobs.
Employment growth projections in the Americas also have been substantially revised, from a previous forecast of 1.6 per cent to 1.2 per cent.
Globally, job vacancies are slightly below their long-term trends, and business and consumer sentiment has declined in the first quarter of 2025. Employers are more cautious about hiring new workers during this period of uncertainty, though they are retaining their existing employees. In some developing countries it could lead to higher unemployment and increase in informal jobs.
ILO has projected the creation of 53 million jobs in 2025 instead of the previously estimated 60 million. This translates into a reduction in global employment growth from 1.7 per cent to 1.5 per cent this year.
The drop – which is the equivalent of around seven million fewer additional jobs – reflects a downgraded global economic outlook, as GDP growth is expected at 2.8 per cent, down from a previous projection of 3.2 per cent.
Around 84 million workers across 71 countries whose employment is linked to consumer demand in the United States face elevated risks of disruption due to higher tariffs and trade uncertainty.
The estimated shortfall of 7 million workers is especially concerning considering the global jobs gap – defined as the number of people who would like a job but currently do not have one – which is estimated to reach 407 million people in 2025.
Employment in Asia and the Pacific region was previously expected to grow by 1.9 per cent or 38 million employed people in 2025, the current forecast predicts employment to grow by a more modest 1.7 per cent or by 34 million – a drop of 4 million jobs.
Employment growth projections in the Americas also have been substantially revised, from a previous forecast of 1.6 per cent to 1.2 per cent.
Globally, job vacancies are slightly below their long-term trends, and business and consumer sentiment has declined in the first quarter of 2025. Employers are more cautious about hiring new workers during this period of uncertainty, though they are retaining their existing employees. In some developing countries it could lead to higher unemployment and increase in informal jobs.