India Has 100 Million Barrels in Reserve, Can Cushion 40–45 Days of Hormuz Disruption: Kpler

As far as India is concerned, it imports about 88 per cent of the crude oil it needs — the raw material for fuels such as petrol and diesel — with more than 50 per cent supplied by Middle Eastern countries and transiting the narrow Strait of Hormuz, flows from which have been disrupted amid the Iran crisis.

If Middle Eastern crude supply were to halt completely for a temporary period, the immediate impact would be logistical and price-driven, with supply risks intensifying if movement through the Strait of Hormuz is disrupted for longer,” said Sumit Ritolia, Lead Research Analyst, Refining & Modeling at Kpler.

A closure of Strait of Hormuz would at first impact prompt cargo liftings. “However, refiners typically maintain commercial inventories, and cargoes already on water would continue to arrive, providing some short-term cushioning to the system,” he said adding in the event of a prolonged disruption, medium-term pressures would build through higher import costs, freight exposure and the need to reroute supplies over longer distances.

“The country maintains strategic petroleum reserves alongside commercial inventories held by refiners and oil marketing companies. These buffers are intended to manage temporary supply shocks rather than sustained outages," he said. "Based on Kpler inventory data, commercial crude stocks are around 100 million barrels, including volumes in the strategic petroleum reserve (SPR) facilities at Mangalore, Padur and Visakhapatnam.”
“With imports via the Strait of Hormuz averaging roughly 2.5 million barrels per day - about half of India's just over 5 million bpd total crude imports - these combined reserves could theoretically cover around 40-45 days of imports in a crude disruption scenario, he said, adding that additional refined product inventories would extend effective coverage further.

However, the immediate impact will be on prices. Brent, global benchmark, crossed $80 per barrel, roughly 10 per cent more since the Iran crisis. For India, higher prices means higher import bills. India spent $137 billion on crude oil imports in the fiscal year ended March 31, 2025. During April 2025 to January 2026, the first ten months of the current fiscal - it spent $100.4 billion on import of 206.3 million tonnes of crude oil.