Crisil Flags Record CV Volumes, With Growth Moderating to 5–6% This Year
Medium and heavy commercial vehicles are anticipated to expand by 4 to 5 per cent, supported by freight movement and government infrastructure spending.
Pune: The Indian commercial vehicle (CV) industry is projected to clock a record volume of around 12.4 lakh units this fiscal year 2027, surpassing previous peak of the financial year 2019, ratings agency Crisil said on Friday.
Driven by infrastructure development, steady replacement demand, and improved affordability from GST rate cut from 28 per cent to 18 per cent in Sept 2025, this growth represents a moderate 5–6 per cent increase following a 13 per cent rebound in FY26.
Crisil said the light commercial vehicles, which constitute about 60 per cent of the total volume, are forecast to grow by 5 to 6 per cent. This segment is primarily driven by ecommerce and last mile delivery requirements.
Medium and heavy commercial vehicles are anticipated to expand by 4 to 5 per cent, supported by freight movement and government infrastructure spending.
However, the completion of dedicated freight corridors introduces new competition from rail transport for long haul freight, which could impact replacement volumes in this category. The bus segment is projected to see a 3 to 4 percent growth, aided by electric bus procurement initiatives.
“Domestic demand momentum is expected to continue this fiscal, albeit with some growth moderation owing to higher base,” said Anuj Sethi, Senior Director at Crisil Ratings.
The LCVs, accounting for about 60% of the industry volume, are projected to grow 5-6%, driven by e-commerce and last-mile delivery demand, while MHCV volumes are expected to expand 4-5%, supported by freight movement and infrastructure spending.
“The ongoing shift toward higher tonnage vehicles, aided by improved road infrastructure, could moderate volume growth even as underlying demand remains steady,” Sethi noted.