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Telugu Desam, BJP surge ahead of Jagan Reddy in Seemandhra: survey


Published on: April 1, 2014 | Updated on: Invalid date

Narendra Modi is ahead in race for the PM seat

Hyderabad: Contrary to few survey reports that have predicted YSR Congress is much ahead of his arch rival Telugu Desam party in Seemandhra, a latest survey report telecast by CNN-IBN on Tuesday night clearly stated Telugu Desam and BJP are racing ahead of Jagan Mohan Reddy's YSR Congress in Seemandhra region in the run up to Lok Sabha polls. 

However, in Telangana region it is going to be close fight between Congress and TRS to secure majority seats in Lok Sabha as per the survey report.

The latest survey report predicts Congress will get 4 to 8 Seats, YSR Congress to get 9 to 15, TDP to get 13 to 19 and TRS to get 4 to 8 seats

According to a Pre-poll survey conducted by Lokniti-CSDS-IBN in March 2014, there is a significant increase in vote share by TDP-BJP, which is considered pro-bifurcation of state, than YSR Congress, which claims to be protagonist of United AP.

This means Seemandhra voter is not going to be carried away by the bifurcation related emotions as was predicted earlier, but definitely Telangana voter still prefers Congress party as responsible for granting separate state and TRS as the main force behind formation of Telangana.

The survey was conducted between March 18 to 23 with a sample size of 1308 in 23 selected Parliamentary segments. Significantly a survey conducted by the same agency in February 2014 did gave different equation.

For the entire AP, The Congress party, which got 39 per cent vote share in 2009 general elections, fared 23 per cent in February survey and 18 in the latest March month survey.

BJP, which got 3.7 per cent vote share in 2009, got an estimated increased share of 6 per cent in February, which further went up to 8 per cent.

 However when it comes to Jaganmohan Reddy's party, it got a projected vote share of 25 per cent in Feb, which was decreased to 21 in March Survey.

It’s main rival Telugu Desam party which polled just 24. 6 per cent in 2009, had an estimated vote share of 23 per cent in Feb, went up to 29 per cent in March survey, giving a clear edge over others.

Similarly TRS, which only got 6.1 per cent of votes in 2009 polls, improved its share to 12 per cent in Feb and 13 per cent in March.

As far as the new entrant Aam Aadmi Party is concerned, it is going to insignificant as far as 2014 LS polls in AP, with just one per cent of estimated vote share reflected in both the surveys in Feb and March

Both Congress and TRS parties are in neck-to-neck fight to secure majority seats, but there is a significant rise in TRS vote share from Feb survey to March survey.

Congress share rose from 32 to 35 in the two surveys, whereas TRS surges from 26 to 34. BJP vote share remain unchanged with 10 per cent in both the surveys.

Though significant but overall marginal was Telugu Desam party increased vote share from 11 in Feb to 13 in March.

Meanwhile, Chandrababu Naidu's TDP surges ahead over Jaganmohan Reddy in Seemandhra where BJP also improved its vote share.

YSR Congress party which has estimated vote share of 45 per cent in Feb survey, dipped to 33 in March. Telugu Desam party vote share increases from 33 to 39, whereas BJP improved its share from 3 per cent to 7 per cent, which is quite significant.

However, Seemandhra people seems to have decided to punish Congress party for dividing the state this time in the polls as the vote share of 16 per cent in Feb slipped to just 7 in March.

As per the survey, Telugu Desam party got 43 per cent vote share in Coastal Andhra but got only 31 per cent share in Rayalaseema region, whereas YSR Congress which got only 29 per cent vote share in Coastal-Andhra are ahead in Rayalaseema with 41 per cent vote share.

When voters specifically asked ' who would you give the credit for the decision to create Telangana separate state', 37 per cent voters gives credit to K. Chandrasekhara Rao's TRS, which is far ahead of Congress party to whom only 21 per cent voters gave credit.

 However significant factor in the survey was only 3 per cent voters give credit to Telangana Congress leaders for achieving the separate state.

 Not only that 50 per cent of TRS voters considers TRS decision not to merge with Congress party was right decision where as only 9 per cent did not endorse the TRS decision.

Modi ahead in PM choice

BJP's Narendra Modi however ahead over others in the Prime Minister's choice in the entire state.

While Modi and Rahul Gandhi got equal share of 21 per cent each in Telangana, Modi got 30 per cent share in Seemandhra but Rahul stood at poor 3 per cent.

Interestingly, 4 per cent of voters in Seemandhra prefered Jagan Mohan Reddy as PM, better than Chandrababu (3 per cent), Manmohan Singh and Sonia Gandhi (1 per cent each).