The announcement of the successful testing of a “hydrogen”, or thermonuclear, bomb by North Korea shook the world earlier this week. A more nasty surprise was hard to imagine, even if the US and others are sceptical of Pyongyang’s claim. Their post-blast seismic data suggests an atomic bomb, which is an object of a much lower yield — thousand to one lower — than a thermonuclear device. The latter is currently in the possession only of the five permanent members of the UN Security Council. The successful emergence of a breakout nation, especially one that pointedly disrespects the international nuclear order, and unlike Iran does not appear amenable to discussion or negotiation, would have sent shivers down the spines of not just Pyongyang’s neighbours South Korea and Japan, but also the United States which offers these two the nuclear umbrella and has done so since the end of the Second World War. Northeast Asia would be destabilised.
China, communist North Korea’s neighbour, guarantor, and comfort-provider over the decades, would also have been discomfited to find a hydrogen bomb in its backyard. Therefore it was not surprising that the leading nations condemned Pyongyang in strong terms on the detonation, and the Security Council also spoke sharply unanimously. India has denounced the test. It remembers the supply of missiles by Pyongyang to Pakistan and receiving nuclear technology in return — a perfect mutual proliferation relationship. Sanctions could follow if China plays ball. Pyongyang, after all, is repudiating its obligations under the NPT. For Pyongyang, Washington is a special case. To end the war on the Korean peninsula in 1953, the US had all but dictated the terms of the armistice — although this was in the name of the United Nations — which ended the fighting between the two Koreas. America fought on South’s side and China for the North.
Nearly seven decades on Pyongyang and Seoul are technically yet to sign a peace agreement or treaty to put an end to the war. The armistice was meant to ensure that no party in the war again acquires the capability to commence hostilities. North Korea’s third and last nuclear test was in 2013. Since then Pyongyang has refused to carry on with the six-nation consultations (involving the US, China, Japan, Russia and the two Koreas) or negotiations to end its nuclear testing, insisting that it first needs a peace treaty with Washington and re-look at the terms of the armistice. Washington is not amenable. It wants guarantees of Pyongyang’s denuclearisation before anything else. The West looks to China to end the stand-off, but we are at a delicate moment.
