Pakistan speaks in two voices, as usual; politicos, military differ in approach towards India
New Delhi: The attack on the IAF base in the Pathankot area of Punjab by Pakistani terrorists has thrown the first major challenge to the Modi Government’s policy of engagement and res-umption of the ‘Comprehensive Bilateral Dialogue’ with Pakistan and could put New Delhi in a bind on how to deal with its troublesome western neighbour.
Pakistan swiftly condemned the Pathankot attack, referring to the goodwill created by “the recent high-level contacts between the two countries” and adding that it remains committed to partnering with India to eradicate the menace of terrorism. The statement reflects the dichotomy that India faces from across the border, with the political establishment in Islamabad wanting to be seen to be reaching out to India while the military establishment there remains indifferent or even hostile.
The obvious question now before the Modi Government is whether to go ahead with talks with Pakistan. Perhaps New Delhi has now gone too far ahead and raised too many hopes which may make it difficult to completely pull back from the peace initiatives last month.
However, the attack will almost certainly raise a discordant note in the relations and the Modi Government is bound to find itself under enormous pressure to once again insist that Pakistan-sponsored terror must cease before any talks take place.
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On the security front, the attack also shows that hardly any lessons seem to have been learnt by India after a previous, almost similar, terror strike in Gurdaspur, Punjab, just a few months ago, that had highlighted certain vulnerable stretches of the Indo-Pak international border in Jammu region. The fact that terrorists, just like last time around, could not have sneaked through without the active support of the Pakistan Rangers also raises serious questions on the commitment of the Pakistani military establishment to the peace process.
There has been a lull for the past eight weeks on the LoC during which developments like the meeting of the two NSAs in Bangkok, the visit of External Affairs Minister Sushma Swaraj to Islamabad and the brief visit of Mr Modi to Lahore took place, raising hopes that perhaps under American pressure, the Pakistan Army and the ISI were finally falling in line. But it turned out to be the lull before the storm.
The timing of the attack also raises suspicions that the Pakistan Army is finally trying to re-assert itself, following the Modi-Sharif meeting and that this could be another ploy of the Pakistani military establishment and ISI to derail the talks and then put the blame on India. Saturday’s attack after Mr Modi’s sudden visit to Lahore is already drawing comparisons with former PM Vajpayee’s Lahore bus visit in 1999 which was followed by Pakistani incursions in Kargil.
