The biggest surprise of 2015 was that there seemed to be no bottom to plunging oil prices. From a high of $115 a barrel in June 2014, prices skidded to a low of $37 a barrel in the last week of 2015. The impact on global GDP growth, at a mere 0.5 per cent, was thought to be only marginal. But the Indian government has been singing all the way to the bank as it was able to curtail fiscal subsidies for stabilising retail energy prices and simultaneously increase its share of the excise duty.
Every $1 decrease is thought to bring down the import bill by Rs 6,500 crore and reduce the subsidy burden by Rs 900 crore. The futures markets see oil prices rising to $60 a barrel only by 2020, which means the Indian economy can expect to be a beneficiary over the next few years too, although the falling rupee might be a worry since with every rupee increase against the US dollar the oil import bill could go up by Rs 7,455 crore.
The other great trend was the rise in the e-retail segment of e-commerce with Amazon India estimated to have sold goods worth over Rs 10,000 crore. Close to 100 million shoppers out of about 375 million Internet users make up the great Indian e-retail marketplace. Flipkart and Snapdeal saw their valuations go through the roof and the New Year is likely to be even better for e-commerce in all sectors, including call taxis, payment companies, second-hand goods auction sites, and even mobile advertisement companies, besides travel. The sky is the limit for Internet-based commerce in 2016.
