Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s two-day trip to Moscow for the 16th India-Russia dialogue with President Vladimir Putin earlier this week presages a surge in bilateral ties. The political language was warm from both sides. Sixteen agreements were signed, embracing signal transactions across defence, energy (nuclear, solar, hydrocarbons) and infrastructure (mainly railways). The Indian leader called Moscow India’s “most dependable ally”, language rarely heard since the Indo-Soviet days. This appeared all the more surprising coming from a leader of the RSS-BJP stream which tended to privilege the West over Moscow.
A few months ago, the sale of Russian military wares to Pakistan had raised wariness in this country. India perhaps better appreciates now that the idea of exclusivity in ties sank with the Cold War. A such, the United States can be friends with India and Pakistan at the same time, although for entirely different reasons. It is well known that occasional solicitousness shown by Russia toward Pakistan is in deference to the terrorism factor, of which Islamabad is deemed to be the key regional exporter. The Modi visit has, however, evidently helped smooth over the wrinkles.
While calling Russia India’s “most important defence partner”, the Prime Minister noted that the country’s first major push in defence manufacture under his “Make in India” mission had come from Russia in the form of the manufacture of Kamov-226 helicopters. He also noted with satisfaction that Russia will make 12 nuclear power reactors in India, with a rising share of manufacturing being transferred to Indian industry. It is due to this that Mr Modi said that his visit lay the “foundation” or set the tone for the “future character” of the “special, privileged, strategic partnership” that exists between the two countries.
A measure of adding content to the relationship can be seen from the fact that the two sides envisage a two-way trade of $30 billion in the next 10 years, a jump from the $10 billion that was thought of only a year ago. Much of the envisioned increase is likely to come from the defence and security sector trade. Historically, this has been the constraining factor in the New Delhi-Moscow relationship. Both sides need to do a lot more to open up the civilian side and people-level transactions. To that extent, agreements and discussions on solar energy, hydrocarbons, the diamond trade, railways, and the evident Russian interest in industrial corridors between major Indian cities, can help to bridge the gap. As in Syria and Afghanistan, Russia desires greater consonance between its stand on international questions and that of India’s. Some of this is the natural consequence of the dispersal of international power and rise in multipolarity in world affairs.
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