Amid all the chaos in West Asia, the breakdown of borders and states, a new threat is fast emerging. The key strategic bulwark to stabilise the region is a strong Afghanistan. But after 15 years of occupation by Western troops and a trillion dollars spent, it now appears to be going the way of the ISIS. Britain joined the US mission in Afghanistan for a simple reason: to depose the Taliban and introduce a new, stable government. It took more than a nudge: 456 British soldiers died during this mission and more than 2,200 Americans. The best that was achieved was the pretence of a stable government.
The Taliban are now on their way back. A surprise attack by a few hundred Taliban just after a religious holiday overran the defences of Kunduz, a strategic town on the border with Central Asia, and the security forces needed two weeks to retake it. Meanwhile, horrific bombing by US aircraft of a Kunduz hospital run by the international medical charity Médecins Sans Frontières, in which 30 people were killed, caused outrage around the world. If such a mistake was possible, it could be repeated.
So how safe is Afghanis-tan now? Afghans now make up the second largest contingent of asylum-seekers arriving in Europe. And what are they fleeing? The world was shown a glimpse of it this last month when footage emerged of a young woman being stoned to death on charge of adultery. President Barack Obama’s decision in October to keep 5,500 US troops in Afghanistan beyond 2017 will ensure that the country is somewhere on the international agenda, but will not actually help defeat the Taliban.
Attempts by Pakistan to broker talks between the Kabul regime and the Taliban have collapsed after just one round taking place. After years of bitter antagonism between Pakistan and Afghanistan, Afghan President Ashraf Ghani and his co-ruler, chief executive Abdullah Abdullah, had improved relations with Islamabad. And for the first time the powerful Pakistan military seemed anxious to end the neighbouring war and help broker a peace deal. But further talks have been suspended amid the deteriorating military situation and disputes within the Taliban itself. The divisions have already led to the emergence of several new splinter groups, with the power to denounce a peace process. Also accumulating territory and power in at least three provinces is the ISIS.
Meanwhile, lacking jobs or an effective state, Afghan refugees in Iran — mostly Shia Hazaras — are being recruited in large numbers by the Iranian military to fight in Syria alongside President Assad’s forces. Thus Afghanistan has, of its own account, crept into the Levant. Daily governance has been brought to a standstill, with crucial projects such as scheduling parliamentary elections on indefinite hold. Meanwhile, the government has failed to tackle corruption and bolster the economy, and is literally running out of money.
In Kabul there is intense political squabbling and many members of Parliament are calling for the government’s resignation and the summoning of the “Loya Jirga” (tribal body) to create a new interim government.
Unlike its Iraqi counterpart, the regular Afghan Army has proved it can fight. But it has taken heavy casualties. The West has lacked an overall strategy to contain the Taliban and help create a stable political order. This follows its earlier failure to convince Pakistan to abandon the Taliban many years ago. Obama has shown little personal interest in Afghanistan beyond doing what he has to do to prevent the total collapse of the state.
At a regional conference hosted by Pakistan and Afghanistan in Islamabad on December 9, all of Afghanistan’s neighbours including Pakistan pledged to take steps to end terrorism in the region and to help bring the Taliban to the table to hold talks with the Kabul government. However, the day before the Taliban launched an attack on Kandahar airport where US and Nato forces are based. The fighting continued into the next day before all 14 of the attackers were killed.
Barring an unexpected return to the peace table, the spring will likely herald a nationwide Taliban offensive. The West is unlikely to come to the Afghan government’s rescue. The possibility of a Taliban return to power — in its southern heartland, at the very least — is no longer improbable. The result will be further destabilisation of Pakistan and Central Asia, creating the perfect conditions for the expansion of the Islamic State. It’s not something anyone in London or Washington will want to admit, but after hundreds of lives lost in Afghanistan, and billions of dollars spent, the worst may well be yet to come.
Ahmed Rashid is a former Pakistani militant, a journalist
By arrangement with the Spectator
