Time for a new Gujarat model?

The Gujarat local bodies’ election, whose result has just been announced, is the first across-the-state indicator of popular opinion after Mr Narendra Modi moved from Gandhinagar to New Delhi. It is also the last opportunity to gauge the public mood before the next Assembly poll due in 2017, about a year from now. As such, the result is likely to have disheartened the BJP and brought some cheer back to the Congress, which has been on the back foot for much of the time that Mr Modi stewarded the state from 2001 to early 2014.

Other than half a dozen key cities, Mr Modi’s party has fared poorly. The Congress, on the other hand, has coolly picked up some two thirds of the district panchayat seats, including those just outside the major urban centres bagged by the saffron party. To make it worse for the BJP, the Congress bagged seats in areas associated with Mr Modi himself, and also chief minister Anandiben Patel and L.K. Advani. But it may be premature to conclude that the Gujarat results are a carry-on effect of the Bihar Assembly election in which BJP was routed although the Prime Minister himself led the campaign.

The dynamics of the two states and of Assembly and district bodies’ polls are different. Besides, in Gujarat, the BJP can use the state machinery to its advantage if it can put its house in order.

When Mr Modi was around in the state, no other leader could grow. He was a charismatic control freak. His successor has not been a replacement in terms of political impact. But the RSS networks survive, and they have the time to help the BJP election machinery re-gain its balance. The Congress has also suffered from want of an effective leadership in the state for some years. If this situation is not corrected quickly, BJP’s recovery will be easier.

The BJP’s defeat in rural areas may be due to farm distress caused by falling cotton prices. The other factor is the agitation of the Patidar Patel community due to deficiencies in agriculture and lack of employment opportunities — in short, the failure of the so-called “Gujarat model” under former CM Modi that was being trumpeted during the last LS polls. If the Congress leadership and state organisation can revive hopes the BJP can be vulnerable, although it has the chance to re-invent himself.