New Delhi: After Bihar, the BJP leadership is a lot more worried. Besides Assam, the possibility of the BJP breasting the tape is bleak. In Uttar Pradesh, BJP might find going tough with a possibility of the Congress joining hands with the RLD and BSP. Even in Assam, where the party wrested seven Lok Sabha seats, the going could be tough if the Congress manages to ally with the All-India United Democratic Front (AIUDF), a party that claims to represent Assam’s Muslims. The combined vote share of the Congress and AIUDF is around 45 per cent.
In West Bengal, the BJP is in terminal decline and, if reports are to be believed, Punjab is rapidly slipping out of its grip. Next year both Assam and West Bengal will go to polls. Assam is the only state where the BJP could possibly romp home. However, if the Congress manages to join hands with the AIUDF in the state, the saffronites could find the going tough. The combined vote share of the Congress and AIUDF is around 45 per cent of which the former controls a vote share of nearly 30 per cent. It’s in Bengal where the BJP — which was on a high after the Lok Sabha polls — is facing a sharp decline. During the local bodies elections in April while the BJP drew a blank, the Trinamul Congress doubled its tally from 38 in 2010 to 71 this year. The Left parties are also slowly regaining lost ground. If the trend continues, the BJP could fight with the Congress for the third or fourth slot.
With trouble over the Panthic agenda, the Akali Dal government is in trouble in Punjab. If the Akalis go down, they will drag the BJP down with it. The Congress meanwhile has managed to settle the infighting and Capt. Amarinder Singh has been brought back to lead the party. The AAP, despite the fight within, could manage to put its house in order before the polls. Anti-incumbency and corruption charges could possibly hurt the SAD-BJP coalition in the state.
After Bihar, the battle royale will be in Uttar Pradesh. In 2014 the BJP stunned the nation by winning 73 of 80 Lok Sabha seats. The Congress, which has shown signs of limping back to regain lost ground in Bihar, is looking at another grand alliance.
Speculation is rife that top Congress leaders met the BSP’s Satish Chandra Mishra before Diwali. The parties apparently discussed seat-sharing. With 403 seats in the UP Assembly, the lion’s share would go to the BSP while the rest would be divided between the Congress and RLD. With the SP going downhill, the party’s vote bank could shift to the BSP. However, if vote percentage has to be taken into consideration, the Congress-BSP control nearly 36 per cent of vote share. If caste arithmetic works out for the RLD, it could also add to the kitty.
After Delhi and Bihar, the BJP could find it difficult to hold on to its Lok Sabha vote share of 43 per cent. Coming down to caste arithmetic, the RLD’s Jat vote bank, which had shifted to BJP in western UP during the LS polls, could return to it if the outfit comes up with winnable faces. During the LS polls the BJP had cut across caste combinations in UP.
The Bihar results are a clear indication that this time the BJP could find cutting across caste barriers difficult. Dalits are still firmly behind the BSP and the Muslim vote could go with Ms Mayawati or the Congress. The upper caste has always been divided between the Congress and BJP.
Dalits comprise nearly 22 per cent while Muslims account for nearly 19 per cent of the vote in UP. The BSP also has considerable influence over non-Yadav OBCs, which includes Gangwards, Kushwahas and Mauryas.
