Last week’s terrorist attack in Paris looks like becoming a game changer. The speed with which it is leading to a re-arranging of existing relations between key states holds vast potential for a transformation in world affairs, beginning with the “struggle” against Daesh (the Arabice acronym for ISIS), to quote the description just emanating from the French presidency.
Paris was attacked by ISIS last Friday evening. By Sunday evening, with American support, French jets were pounding Raqqa in northern Syria, the self-proclaimed capital of Daesh which holds contiguous territories in Iraq and Syria. And by Tuesday evening, the Russian Air Force was dropping bombs on the ISIS “capital”. Earlier, US planes began to disrupt many kilometres-long truck convoys carrying Iraqi petroleum from Daesh-held territory for illegitimate sale, which is ISIS’ most vital source of funds.
The last time Moscow, Paris, and Washington cooperated militarily was against Hitler’s Germany in the Second World War. Military coordination without political accord can’t go far, but there are signs this is changing. Moscow, Washington, Paris (and probably other Western powers) are on the same page on this. Russian leader Vladimir Putin has asked his armed forces and security quadrant to now regard France as an “ally”.
At the recent G-20 summit in Turkey, President Putin and President Barack Obama met without aides, assisted only by an interpreter for about half an hour and news photos showed them in deep conversation. President Hollande is flying to Washington on November 24 and to Moscow on November 26. In between he is to receive Iran President Hassan Rouhani in Paris. This will be the first visit by an Iranian leader to Europe in 10 years. Military and political coordination will be the very point in these talks, we may be sure.
The Daesh political attack is having its impact not just in Europe and re-ordering the West’s ties with Moscow, which had been badly strained since the crisis in Ukraine. Re-arranging of regional ties also is seen to be occurring in West Asia, where Daesh has taken rise.
For the first time since the Syrian crisis began nearly five years ago, the West-backed opposition to President Bashar al-Assad, and the government side, are slated to cease fire and begin work towards a political modus vivendi. This could happen “in weeks, not months”, says US secretary of state John Kerry. Mr Assad’s backer is Iran and the opposition gets its strength from Saudi Arabia (and the West), the two arch-enemies and principal poles in Muslim affairs in West Asia. On the ISIS question, Tehran and Riyadh seem on the same side, just as Moscow and the West are. A week ago, all this would have been impossible to visualise.
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