Opposition may not pull off Grand Alliance

But, broadly speaking, a ‘mahagathbandhan’ (mega alliance) is near improbable in Tamil Nadu in the current political climate for a few reasons.

First, unlike the JD (U) and RJD in Bihar, there are no two equally powerful partners in the Opposition in Tamil Nadu who are willing to make strange bedfellows to defeat a common enemy. Secondly, none of the opposition parties in the Dravidian heartland is as desperate as Nitish Kumar and Lalu Prasad were to gang up against a seemingly single strong party, in the instant case AIADMK (in Tamil Nadu).

Third and most importantly, the Opposition in Tamil Nadu is not just split in three different ways, but neither of the parties is willing to bite the bullet at this juncture. Even if they get together, the single largest Opposition party DMK, which has little over 23 per cent votes, will require more than a few allies to take the fight with AIADMK.

The VCK, which insisted on DMK giving it a share in power till a few weeks back, has now joined the Vaiko led People’s Welfare Front (PWF), whose cumulative vote share will not exceed half of the poll percentile of the second largest party (in terms of vote share) in the state.

Likewise, the DMDK, which has vowed not have any truck with either of the Dravidian parties, will in all probability make demands that would be considered unreasonable by an alliance leader, most likely DMK, in the event of it deciding to make peace to unseat the AIADMK.

Finally, even if a marriage of convenience happens between acrimonious partners in the Opposition and pans out into a mega alliance, there is enough historic evidence to indicate its failure.

Political commentator Aazhi Senthilnathan says; “What happened when PMK and DMDK came together under the BJP led rainbow alliance in 2014? Ramadoss campaigned only for his son. There is very little to believe that such allies will work together.”

“We cannot say that AIADMK will not go it alone. There is good possibility of Jayalalithaa roping in one or two parties from anywhere at the nick of time. In that case, the PWF may even disintegrate. Such an arrangement might polarize the opposition and force Vijayakanth to gravitate towards DMK, but it is a tad too early,” he added.