Polling percentages in Bihar tend to be middling, and sometimes even a shade below, but the just-ended five-phase election for the state Assembly has apparently averaged about 57 per cent in peaceful voting. The Election Commission reckons this is the highest ever turnout for the state in an Assembly poll in a quarter century. While a few observers have maintained that one or the other principal grouping in the fray — the chief minister Nitish Kumar-led secular “mahagathbandhan”, or grand alliance, and the BJP-led NDA powered by virtually single-handed campaigning by Prime Minister Narendra Modi — will win wholesale, the general view has been that the contest is close.
The exit polls also reflect this confusion. More people showing up to vote evidently reflects all-out mobilisation by those in the fray, although a higher turnout, in an election that is not in the nature of a wave, often favours cadre-based parties such as the BJP. The saffron party has a silent machinery working for it in the RSS whose strengths in urban and semi-urban communities in northern India are widely recognised. And yet, the voting in state capital Patna, where the BJP has had an impressive presence for quite long, was relatively poor. Are there subterranean mysteries here? The BJP has put it out that a loss in Bihar would not be a reflection on the government it leads at the Centre. What explains this defensive posture is that the PM, along with his acolyte Amit Shah, the BJP president, has been campaigning more heavily than any BJP leader. Compounding doubts, Union home minister Rajnath Singh has said that Mr Shah need not resign as party chief if the party loses.
Does this mean that losing Bihar cannot be ruled out, or has deliberate self-inflicted damage been part of the poll planning by some on the saffron side? Wheels within wheels are frequently known to operate in the RSS-BJP equation, but there will be no dark corners left to illuminate tomorrow, when the poll result will be known. All said and done, however, this is an election for a single state. Mr Modi has won a five-year mandate. Nothing takes that away. A victory will reinforce the fact that the PM personally continues to carry the momentum. A defeat will doubtless take the shine away and put pressure on the PM in Parliament. Opponents and rivals within will gain leeway. A noteworthy feature of this election is that there was no overt sense of anti-incumbency against the chief minister. And probably the sharpest political attack on Mr Kumar mounted by the BJP was for aligning with RJD supremo Lalu Prasad Yadav, the helmsman of “jungle raj” in Bihar, and this did have a resonance. But the key was still the alchemy of caste.
