When the polling ends this evening, we will have a better idea of how the remaining four phases of the Bihar Assembly polls will take shape — what the electoral preferences of the various castes and communities in this politically highly-conscious state are likely to be, as well as the state of preparation of political parties in the fray. It is fair to say that no election since last year’s Lok Sabha polls that made Narendra Modi Prime Minister carries as much meaning as the contest in Bihar. For this reason it has attracted unusual attention.
A victory for the BJP-led NDA, no matter how slim or ambiguous, is likely to boost the Prime Minister personally. Mr Modi has chosen to insert himself into the fray virtually as principal contestant, and chosen to place BJP president Amit Shah, a long-time acolyte, in Patna on his behalf to keep tabs on day-to-day developments. He is obviously more than cognisant of what the Bihar polls might stand for. A defeat, on the other hand, will debilitate Mr Modi politically, and impact the fate of his policies at the Centre. Not only will such an eventuality strengthen Bihar Chief Minister Nitish Kumar and his allies, Lalu Prasad Yadav’s RJD as well as the Congress, these three parties together could prove to be a handful at the Centre. Perceptions sometime trump arithmetic in public life.
The election process is proving to be tough-going for all sides in the battle. Observers appear totally flummoxed. Pollsters, who use the same broad methodology and approach, are coming up with different results. It has become commonplace to hear that the election is too close to call, though the eventual results may bear no relation with this commonly-held belief. From time to time, the electorates in India have sprung surprises.
Since the battle is turning out to be so keenly fought, the language of the campaign, in particular by top politicians in the two camps, has hit rock bottom, compelling the Election Commission to take note and caution the gladiators. One thing is quite evident in the campaign. The talk of “development” (on which both Mr Modi and Mr Nitish Kumar have set store, for the record) and “jungle raj” (the barb flung at Lalu Yadav by the BJP, and hence at the so-called “grand alliance” of JD-U, RJD and Congress), is mainly for show. In reality, all sides are intensively working the caste identities, and the BJP is also seeking to capitalise on the communal equation brought about by the recent Dadri lynching by playing up the “cow” and “beef” factor.
