If Prime Minister Modi’s brainwave to invite US President Barack Obama, in his “lame duck” phase, as the chief guest for this year’s Republic Day and the President’s acceptance at short notice, signalled that India and the US were seeking to change the basic contours of their relationship to something very special in a way that had not been attempted before, then Mr Modi’s current six-day trip will be regarded as being a block of the early building phase.
It is therefore unlikely to turn on particular outcomes, such as the economy and commercial, although some have spoken of the Indian PM’s time so far being all talk and no action on the economic reforms front.
Mr Modi has indeed flunked the test on pushing through GST and the revised land acquisition law to suit business interests — domestic and foreign — and will need to put matters in perspective when he interacts with the US business community. However, when they meet him for dinner in New York the CEOs of Fortune 500 companies are still likely to be looking for assurance from the Prime Minister that his thought coordinates have not changed. Basically this means that judgement at this stage on Mr Modi’s showing may be premature.
To launch the PM’s US trip, India cleared a $2.5-billion deal to buy Apache attack helicopters and Chinook heavy-lift helicopters. This has significance on the economic and the strategic side, and America now becomes this country’s largest defence supplier, edging out Russia. Of course, the Modi government will doubtless heed the words of the US commerce secretary, Penny Pritzker, at the first India-US Strategic and Commercial Dialogue in Washington, that India is still only the eleventh-largest trading partner of the United States and that some urgency needed to be brought into the calculus.
When Mr Modi and Mr Obama meet on September 28, the two may reaffirm their commitment to a “political military dialogue” and a “joint vision” for the Asia-Pacific, the two issues that had caught attention during the President’s January visit to New Delhi. In this regard, it is pertinent that the Malabar naval exercise next month is slated to be an upgrade on last year, and will also include Japan to emphasise a triangular military partnership in light of developments in the Far East. For his part, the Prime Minister would do well to discuss regional matters, especially AfPak where, to India’s discomfiture, Washington has leaned towards Islamabad to be the gendarme.
Chinese President Xi Jinping will be a leading guest in the US at the same time as Mr Modi. This doesn’t mean reduced mindspace for India for the US policy elite. American discussions with China and India are about different things.
