Bihar Assembly polls: Advantage BJP as Muslim vote splits

New Delhi: It could be advantage BJP in Bihar as the secular forces have locked horns to target the large chunk of Muslim votes in Bihar.

The 16 per cent Muslim vote, which was expected to go to the RJD-JD(U) combination, could now split three ways.

Besides the RJD-JD(U), Asaduddin Owaisi-led AIMIM and the proposed SP-NCP front are also looking to cut into the Muslim votes in the state.

The entry of Mr Owaisi and the SP-NCP front has become a major cause of concern for the grand alliance comprising of the JD(U)-RJD and Congress, whose poll calculations have gone completely awry.

The traditional Muslim-Dalit vote-bank of the JD(U)-RJD is now up for grabs.

The BJP is banking on heavy consolidation of the upper caste and its dalit faces Ram Vilas Paswan and Jitan Ram Manjhi, who were earlier way behind the formidable Muslim-Yadav combination of the JD(U)-RJD.

However, Mr Owaisi’s entry and Mulayam Singh walking out of the Janata Parivar brigade to contest with the NCP changed the entire scenario, with the BJP apparently zipping ahead.

Muslims, constituting nearly 16 per cent of the population in Bihar, play a decisive role in nearly 50 seats, particularly in the Seemanchal region of Purnia, Kishanganj, Araria and Katihar.

The grand alliance now apprehends that Mr Owaisi could now play the spoiler, like he did in Maharashtra.

The MIM fielded 24 candidates in Maharashtra and bagged nearly half-a-million votes, winning two seats, finishing second on three seats and third on eight seats. With the SP-NCP throwing their hat into the ring, chances of a saffron sun rising in Bihar are now increasing rapidly.

Regardless of the fact that both the SP-NCP lack any base in Bihar, both these outfits, along with MIM, would eat into Lalu Yadav-Nitish Kumar’s vote-bank. Not that the SP-NCP could win an impressive number of seats, but like MIM it could damage the grand alliance’s constituency.

Incidentally, the SP and the NCP had walked out of the grand alliance as they were not satisfied with the number of seats allotted to them. The NCP, which was offered three seats, was the first to exit, followed by the SP which was given five seats.

If the NDA is banking heavily on the consolidation of the upper caste and dalit vote-banks, the Janata Parivar-Congress alliance has been relying on the Kurmi, Yadav, mahadalit and most backward vote in addition to the consolidation of the Muslim vote.