Hardly a year passes without an election somewhere in India, but it is a rarity in Myanmar. Here people will have the opportunity to exercise their franchise on November 8.
The last free elections were held in Myanmar in 1990. The outcome — a landslide victory for Aung San Suu Kyi’s National League for Democracy (NLD) — was rejected by the military that continued to govern the country for the next 20 years. Elections in 2010 were not considered “free and fair”, but the new leader — President Thein Sein, a retired general — unleashed a series of reforms, reaching out to the Opposition and ushering in substantial liberalisation. Five years on, the country is set to face polls again for the Parliament and regional Assemblies. Later, MPs will elect a new President. “This is a crucial turning point for our country,” said Ms Suu Kyi, launching her party’s campaign last week.
Political parties have fielded candidates for a total of 498 seats in the Parliament, leaving aside 166 seats that are reserved for the military. Besides, 673 seats of regional Assemblies are in contention too. Of about 90 parties registered to participate in the elections, there are two national parties, Union Solidarity and Development Party (USDP), the military-backed ruling party, and the NLD which had boycotted the 2010 elections.
Subsequently, Ms Suu Kyi’s party participated in the by-elections in 2012 and succeeded in capturing most seats. The message was loud and clear then: Ms Suu Kyi’s popularity with the people was intact. Much has changed since. Her image as an international icon has been dented. Yet her position within the country is still considered strong.
The third player is a set of ethnic parties that enjoy varying kind of support in their respective region. There is diversity, fragmentation and uncertainty whether ethnics would prefer their own parties or one of the national parties.
If elections produce a hung Parliament, horse-trading may become inevitable before the presidential election that will take place in February or March 2016. The main point of interest is whether the NLD will get a landslide victory, a clear majority or merely the single largest party status. Everything else will flow from how the NLD performs.
Underneath the multi-dimensional rivalry between Ms Suu Kyi and the Army, the ruling party and ethnic parties, and among political parties and religious groups, several significant issues are dominating the campaign narrative.
First, the battle is for the idea of democracy. Ms Suu Kyi advocates genuine, full-fledged democracy now, whereas the generals would prefer to wait for another 10 years. She is opposed to a “political” Army, but the military insists on power-sharing with civilian leaders. The last tussle in the Parliament for amending the Constitution to reduce the military’s powers ended in favour of the brass. Still, she is seeking people’s support for her mission: military should now let people govern themselves. “The coming election is our chance to change the system and go for democracy,” Ms Suu Kyi stated on September 10.
Second, it is about Ms Suu Kyi’s political future. The Constitution does not allow her to be a presidential candidate as her children are foreign nationals. The Army will not allow the Constitution to be amended. When she developed a political partnership with the acting chairman of USDP, Thura Shwe Mann, an internal party “coup” was staged to oust him from the position. Even if she cannot become the President, Ms Suu Kyi could be the kingmaker, but the generals have kept that role for themselves. Will she then become the Speaker of the Parliament?
Third, the issue of national reconciliation involving the state, the Bamar majority community and ethnic minorities, has been both important and complex. President Sein achieved some progress initially, but his efforts to sign the nationwide ceasefire agreement (NCA) with ethnic fighting groups have been stalled so far. Mr Sein hopes this could be done before the elections, thus giving him an extra boost. Prospects hardly look bright at present.
Fourth, the escalating role of religion in politics has become a burning issue. In Bamar regions, the rise of ultra-Buddhist nationalism is the new reality. Whether this impacts adversely on Ms Suu Kyi’s charismatic appeal is worrying her party. Assertiveness by the Buddhist segments and the government’s support for them in the Rakhine state is a notable phenomenon.
Fifth, the future of reform is also open to question. The country no doubt needs a stronger and continuous dose of political and economic liberalisation, building up on the recent progress. Economic growth and flow of foreign investment would be sustained only if there is stability and reconciliation. This, in turn, is possible if the political elite is guided by national interests rather than narrow partisan considerations. Will the elections throw up such a leadership?
Finally, the most frequently asked question is: who will be the next President? Of the four possibilities identified by Myanmar watchers earlier, two have fallen on the wayside — Ms Suu Kyi and Mr Shwe Mann. The third and the almost-declared candidate is Mr Sein, the present incumbent. The fourth is commander-in-chief Min Aung Hlaing, who is ambitious and nearing his retirement. Besides, there could be “a dark horse” who might emerge from post-election negotiations. Myanmar’s future trajectory will be moulded by the next leader and the coalition built around him.
What happens before, during and after the elections in November will be important not only to Myanmar but to its neighbours, the region and the international community. Myanmar is a large, resource-rich country whose people have suffered for long. Its neighbourhood will be happier if Myanmar heads steadily towards stability, peace and progress.
Association of Southeast Asian Nations’ community-building mission will be strengthened if Myanmar keeps moving in the positive direction. The US, European Union and other like-minded countries such as Japan, South Korea and Australia would hope that the nation’s balanced foreign policy, a departure from the military regime’s excessive dependence on China, continues after the elections.
India, in particular, would want that the forces of stability, reconciliation and democracy get strengthened, and the country governs itself through accommodation and consensus, instead of remaining mired in internal strife. New Delhi’s endeavours to promote peace and development in the Northeast and curb insurgent activity need Myanmar as a strong and constructive partner.
Results of the November 8 elections and the subsequent presidential election would show whether the entire region will have something to celebrate.
The writer is a former ambassador to Myanmar and the author of India-Myanmar Relations: Changing Contours
