The verdict of the impending Assembly elections in Bihar will have great bearing on the fortunes of Prime Minister Narendra Modi, his government and his principal rival Nitish Kumar. The result will also determine, to a lesser extent, the post-election relevance of four smaller players — Rashtriya Janata Dal’s Lalu Prasad Yadav, Lok Janshakti’s Ram Vilas Paswan, expelled Janata Dal (United) leader and former chief minister Jitan Ram Manjhi and Rashtriya Lok Samta Party’s Upendra Kushwaha. Bihar’s political landscape over the next few years will also be redrawn by the results as an unexpected performance by any party can lead to reworking of alliances. But the most decisive impact at the national level will be in the event of the Bharatiya Janata Party’s defeat.
If the party loses, the biggest impact will be on the reforms process as it will come to a grinding halt. The Budget Session began in the immediate wake of the BJP’s washout in Delhi and the government failed to get the land acquisition law passed. The Monsoon Session has not witnessed a new narrative and the land bill will again go for re-promulgation to the President. The failure to get parliamentary nod for the land acquisition bill has become symbolic of the government’s failure in hastening the reforms process.
Staunch adherents of Hindutva also hold “leftist” views on economic matters, especially on matters related to land, labour and capital. In the Indian social discourse reforms are inevitable considered anti-poor and pro-rich. This makes it imperative for all governments to pursue reforms more briskly at the beginning of the tenure than towards the end. Governments have also traditionally allowed reforms to get inexorably linked to electoral results. And Mr Modi is no different. He is unlikely to rev up the reforms engine in the event of poor returns.
But Mr Modi can counter-balance the opposition to reforms within his own political fraternity and outside if he wins Bihar. It may still be a one-time occurrence, but the BJP’s humiliating defeat in Delhi underscored Mr Modi’s electoral vulnerability and the shaky nature of his social base. Bihar will determine if the Modi government retains last May’s mandate.
Mr Modi has two ways to take a shot at Bihar: as “Vikas Purush” playing the development card, or as “Hindu Hriday Samrat” polarising society. In case of a victory using the former method, Mr Modi is unlikely to be dependent on the so-called fringe forces within the Sangh Parivar because he would have demonstrated that the Hindutva agenda is not a great draw. But if Mr Modi decides to send “thank you” notes to the likes of Giriraj Singh, Yogi Adityanath and Sadhvi Niranjan Jyoti during the campaign and the BJP wins, he will not be able to distance himself from hardliners.
On paper, the BJP has no chance of winning the Bihar polls because, according to the vote share of the Lok Sabha elections from Bihar and the subsequent by-polls, anti-NDA votes add up to almost 45 per cent while the BJP alliance remains pegged at 39 per cent. The results of the by-elections in August 2014 indicated that after JD(U) and RJD pooled resources, they stood a better chance of victory — they were able to win six of the 10 seats that went to polls. Though it is always foolhardy to predict election results on the basis of simple mathematical calculations, this is indicative of the uphill task in front of the BJP.
The BJP faces another major handicap. Ever since Mr Kumar shifted to state politics in March 2000, the BJP has mainly been the junior partner in the alliance with the JD(U). As a result, the BJP paid scant attention to building its organisation for fear of offending the chief minister. The BJP does not have a state-wide network of workers and cadre.
But in the alliance it now dominates, the BJP would want to field its own candidates in at least 150 seats. Like the problem the party faced in Maharashtra and Haryana last year during Assembly elections, the BJP will find selecting suitable candidates in Bihar a difficult task. While the BJP was able to overcome this handicap in these states because of the presence of the Modi wave, the task is going to be tougher now because of decline in Mr Modi’s personal popularity.
On paper, Mr Kumar appears to hold the edge not just because of the electoral arithmetic but also because his performance as chief minister will be weighed against Mr Modi’s accomplishments as Prime Minister. Early opinion polls show that there is little to difference in perception about the two — the relatively poorer performance of Mr Kumar in his second term in office is offset by Mr Modi’s none-too-impressive record as Prime Minister till now.
Though it’s a race that primarily figures two horses, others do have a role to play. The battleground is roughest for Mr Yadav because he is personally absent from the fray because of his conviction in the fodder scam. In hindsight, Mr Kumar may have benefited from the aborted merger of the Janata Parivar because this may eventually result in Mr Yadav being left with an inconsequential rump, giving Mr Kumar the option to explore new alliances, maybe even a rapprochement with
Mr Manjhi if he becomes chief minister again.
Mr Modi will address at least 20 rallies. This demonstrates the BJP’s weak bench strength and that Mr Modi remains the primary vote-catcher. The JD(U) too has got into modern campaign mode, though the chief minister-centric campaign is backed by old methods. If Mr Modi fails to steal Bihar, it will also have a lot to do with the BJP’s reluctance to name a chief ministerial candidate. Though Sushil Modi is most likely to be made chief minister if the BJP wins, not announcing a chief ministerial candidate screams proxy rule from Delhi and this may not eventually work in a politicised, identity-conscious state like Bihar.
The writer is the author of Narendra Modi: The Man, the Times
