Population: The forgotten problem
In all the recent activity that we have witnessed on the economic front, representing a continuous attempt to free the economy from the clutches of red-tape, statism and rampant bureaucracy, there is one factor which finds no mention at all either in the official vocabulary or among the Opposition. It is almost as in the famous couplet of Faiz Ahmed Faiz:
Woh bâât sare fasâne mein jiskâ jikr na thâ
Woh bâât unko bahut nâgawâr gujri hai.
(That point about which there was no mention at all in the whole saga, is the very point which they find most uncomfortable and unpleasant.)
The point, of course, is the alarming failure of our population control policy. The 2011 Census has shown that the growth rate is 1.3 per cent per annum, resulting in a staggering annual increase of almost 160 million people to the population of India. This means that if the growth rate remains constant, the increa-se in absolute terms will expand every year, especially since life expectancy has steadily risen and is now well over 60 years.
With all the controversy about reservations, will someone please explain how many new jobs will be created every year compared to the number of young people — men as well as women — annually entering the workforce? With all the talk of poverty removal, will someone please explain how many new houses will be built each year, how much additional cloth and food produced, how many new dispensaries opened, how many wells sunk? The “magic of the marketplace” is all very fine, and we hope it works with tantric velocity in India, but surely if the marketplace gets so crowded that there is no place even to move, the magic will find it hard to be effective. One had hoped that while announcing economic and fiscal reforms, the finance minister would also draw pointed attention to the prime necessity for a parallel thrust in the family planning programme or, to use a more sophisticated term, population stabilisation programme.
Sadly, the torrential increase in our population is being consistently ignored by those in whose hands fate has placed the destiny of this nation. Way back in 1975, I had presented before Parliament a “National Population Policy”, a comprehensive policy covering a wide spectrum of areas. It envisaged a drop in the birthrate to 1.4 per cent by the year 1984. By a most tragic and unfortunate concatenation of circumstances, into which it is not possible for me here to go, the whole policy got derailed and distorted. Indeed, things became so bad that the very phrase “family planning” became taboo, and the name of the ministry itself was changed to health and family welfare. Since then, all political parties, without exception, have virtually ignored population control. The whole area is looked upon as being politically radioactive. Voluntary agencies have been battling bravely, but against overwhelming odds.
Forty years ago we had prepared three possible scenarios for the population in the year 2000. The most optimistic one was 900 million assuming that the established population policy was implemented in letter and spirit, but of course without any coercion. The median projection was 950 million, which seemed at that time to be more realistic. The doomsday projection was one billion. As it turned out, we crossed the one billion mark exactly in the year 2000, and our population now stands at over 1.2 billion.
The implications of this magnitude of population growth are too obvious to need reiteration. Already it has diluted much of the benefits of our substantial economic growth since Independence. Widespread malnutrition persists, sending into society children with shrivelled bodies and under-developed minds; our urban slums are steadily spreading across the land; deforestation, desertification and despoliation of our natural resources proceed apace; the pressure of population exacerbates rural and urban conflicts and social tensions, fuelling the growing proclivity towards violence. With the West steadily showing negative population growth, it is fashionable to speak about India’s demographic dividend. While it is true that our youth has a crucial role to play even in the international labour market, the fact is that must be fully nourished and educated if this is to become operative.
What is needed is a multi-pronged strategy which includes, above all, the empowerment of women. In a vast majority of areas of India, women have hardly any control over the number of children they bear. Unless contraceptive facilities are provided on a very wide scale, particularly in rural areas, it will not be possible to empower women in this regard. There has been a welcome change over the last few decades, in that even people from the lower middle class realise that having more than two children is not a practical proposition any longer, and that with their limited resources they will not be able to provide decent nutrition or education to more than two children.
In urban areas, several lower middle-class couples are now content even if their two children are daughters. In rural areas, however, the situation is vastly different. The obsession with having a son is still strong, and people will continue until the first and in some cases the second son arrives. What is needed is a massive public education campaign on the lines of “Swachh Bharat” initiated by the Prime Minister. In a way, the two concepts are linked, because large families will obviously find it more difficult to maintain standards of healthy sanitation than smaller ones.
Recently there was a disturbing report in the papers about the country was facing a shortage of condoms. Condoms are obviously the most effective instrument not only for family planning but also to safeguard against HIV/AIDS and other sexually-transmitted diseases. Thailand achieved its family stabilisation almost entirely through the massive use and propagation of condoms. New production units should be rapidly set up around the country. In addition, of course, there is the option of male and female sterilisation. It was the misuse of this in north India that was a major factor of the Congress’ debacle in the 1977 general elections. Specific targets need not be set, but this option should always be available, particularly in the rural areas. Many years ago hopeful progress was made towards an anti-fertility vaccine for men, but that does not seem to have reached any satisfactory conclusion.
What is needed is a national consensus on population policy, followed by a multi-pronged drive to spread the message of population control to all sections and segments of society. In this, the Central and state governments, local bodies, voluntary organisations and youth associations will all need to be involved. The Prime Minister would be well advised to call a special meeting of the National Development Council to discuss the population problem. And he could set the tone for this by the symbolic act of renaming the ministry as the ministry of health and population stabilisation.
The writer is a politician, author and diplomat