Iran nuclear deal: A step towards stability

Capping 23 months of intense negotiations that was not without moments of deep mistrust and bitterness, Iran’s agreement with the world’s major powers — all the five permanent members of the UN Security Council and the principal players in Europe — struck in Vienna last Tuesday brings to a close three and a half decades of hostility between the US-led Western bloc and a major nation which is an old civilisation and a key player in the volatile West Asian theatre.

The end of Iran’s isolation on the terms that have been reached cannot but be welcomed by India. In the foreseeable future the agreement removes any chance of yet another nuclear-armed nation emerging in India’s neighbourhood. This has been a long-standing Indian concern based on the premise that, although a signatory to the nuclear non-proliferation treaty, Iran was seeking furtively to break out of the limitations imposed by the NPT and begin the production of nuclear weapons.

The end of Western as well as UN sanctions against Iran will also enable this country to engage with a major power politically and economically to the fullest extent possible. Strategic ties with Iran are both possible and feasible. Given the natural resources base of Iran, once deemed a major oil producer, a return to a strong hydrocarbons relationship is still possible. In many senses, India and Iran also have common circles of interest in the context of Central Asia and Afghanistan.

The historic agreement was made possible through the far-sightedness of US President Barack Obama as well as Iran President Hassan Rouhani. Serious concerns have been raised about the agreement by Saudi Arabia, the West’s pivotal Arab ally and a leading international player, as well as Israel, a fundamental partner and ally of America and the West. Yet, some of their worries about the post-agreement Iran — that flush with funds after the lifting of sanctions, Tehran will pose serious security problems for both — are surely imaginary.

We only need to remember that before 1979, when Washington cut off relations with the Islamic revolutionary regime in the wake of the overthrow of the Shah of Iran, a camp-follower of the US, and the seizure of the American embassy in Tehran by zealots of the new religious autocracy, Tehran did exist as a key player. But Riyadh and Tel Aviv want a regional rival to be down on its knees. Now this seems unrealistic.

After the historic accord, the capacity of Tehran’s regional detractors to create wanton instability only in order to be difficult is likely to be constrained. Many have long felt that the issue of Iran’s nuclear ambition was a hyped one. The real problems were political, and these will now need to be addressed.