THIRUVANANTHAPURAM: Heavy showers through the day could not prevent the voters of Aruvikkara constituency from surpassing the 2011 vote percentage for the bypoll which in many ways will chart the future course of the state’s politics.
Election Commission figures available till 6 p.m. put the vote percentage at 76.31 compared to the 70.29 per cent recorded in the 2011 Assembly elections. The final tally could be even higher.
High poll percentage was recorded in all the eight panchayats. Aryanad ruled by the LDF recorded the highest voter turnout at 78.90, followed by Aruvikkara 77.34, Vellanadu 76.73 and Poovachal 76.26, all ruled by the UDF. The vote percentage in other panchayats: Vithura (UDF) - 75.88, Uzhamalakkal (LDF)- 75.54, Kuttichal (LDF)- 74.29 and Tholicode (LDF) - 74.12.
Four panchayats each are held by the rival fronts. In 2011 when the erstwhile Aryanad became the present Aruvikkara constituency, UDF candidate Karthikeyan led in all the eight panchayats winning the seat by over 10,600 votes, for the fifth consecutive time. However, in the 2014 Lok Sabha polls, the LDF managed to secure a lead of over 4,000 votes.
Political observers said past electoral records could not be a benchmark to determine the 2015 bypoll outcome. They said the voting pattern differed in local bodies, Assembly and Lok Sabha polls.
The main parties interpreted the high poll percentage according to their own calculations. The UDF attributed the voter surge to the Karthikeyan factor, the young and educated candidate and the support for the Oommen Chandy government’s decisions like closure of bars. “It will be the victory of the late Karthikeyan, Oommen Chandy and Sabarinathan. Aruvikkara will have a UDF MLA,” said Mr Sabarinathan.
The Left leaders claimed that it was a “political vote” against the corrupt government. “People were waiting for a chance to teach them a lesson. They have given a decisive verdict. The polling was in our favour right from the morning which got consolidated towards the end,” said LDF candidate M. Vijayakumar.
The BJP too expressed the confidence of springing a surprise. Mr O. Rajagopal said people had come out in huge numbers to vote against the UDF government and the LDF because of their adjustment politics. “It will be a victory of light over darkness,” he said.
Observers say the BJP which had secured 7694 votes in 2011 is likely to cross 25,000 because of the presence of a formidable candidate like Rajagopal.
The higher votes for the BJP may reduce the chances of an LDF victory. But the anti- government sentiments are expected to turn into votes for both the LDF and the BJP.
Interestingly, none of the parties claimed the chances of a huge victory. While the UDF camp said it might win by a minimum of 8,000 votes, the LDF claimed a 5,000- plus victory. The BJP said it was close to opening an account in the state Assembly.
