Hyderabad: Holding on to its forecast of a deficient rainfall this year, senior officials of the Indian Meteorological Department maintain that the El Nino factor may strengthen in the coming months and July might see a below normal or a dry phase.
“The Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO) — an eastward moving pulse of clouds and rainfall — has favoured the above-normal southwest monsoon till now. However, the MJO is a temporary phenomenon unlike the El Nino, which is an overall feature,” said D.S. Pai, head of the Long Range Forecasting (LRF) division of the India Meteorological Department. “A moderate El Nino is there and we forecast that it might strengthen and affect the monsoon in the coming months,” the senior IMD official said.
“The IMD stands by the forecast of 88 per cent rainfall for this monsoon,” Mr Pai said, adding, “another update will come at the end of July.” Till now, majority of the districts in AP and TS, have received “excess” or “deficient” rainfall. In Telangana, most districts received “excess” rainfall between the period of June 1 and June 19.
As per the district-wise seasonal rainfall status recorded from June 1, in AP, out of the 670 mandals in the state, 392 received “excess” rainfall, 103 mandals recorded “normal” rains while 175 mandals fell under regions that received “deficient to scanty” rains during this period.
Though there was a delayed onset and monsoon advanced into Telangana only on June 13, excess rainfall, ranging from 20 to 170 per cent deviation from normal rains, has been recorded by all the districts except Mahbubnagar, which is in the “normal” range at present, as per the IMD data.
“It is not that the entire season will have above normal rains. There are roughly 100 days of the season left and the country has received around 10 per cent of the total quantum of rains. We are yet to receive the remaining 90 per cent of rainfall,” Mr Pai.
Staff crunch hits IMD predictions
Sources from the Indian Meteorological Department observatories across the two states say that they are trying to utilise the “available staff and technologies” in the best possible way, but “chances of errors in the forecasts arise due to lapses”.
Recalling a recent incident, a senior official from Hyderabad, said, “A radar for real-time prediction of thunderstorms had technical issues and was repaired after two months.”
Several minor issues, when ignored, impact the overall accuracy of forecasts, the official said.
A senior Hyderabad IMD official said the technical staff is overburdened. While four people are needed at each of the 11 observatories, most centres don’t even have three people at the station.
The official said the absence of speedy planning and implementation was responsible for the IMD’s state.
IMD Hyderabad director in-charge Y.K. Reddy said, “Authorities know the IMD centres are under-equipped and understaffed. Modernisation programmes are on in a phased manner and it will take some time.”
