Only a few days ago, it appeared that the BJP and its allies were sitting pretty in their preparations for the Assembly election in Bihar in a little over three months’ time as the dissonance in the rival camp of so-called Janata Parivar parties (CM Nitish Kumar’s JD(U) and former CM Lalu Yadav’s RJD) seemed palpable on important counts — share of seats to contest between these two lead parties and the question of identifying the CM candidate of the alliance in advance. But now the boot seems to be on the other foot, with the state’s backward class alliance managing to strike up a measure of concord while the BJP seems unable to present the shape of its alliance to the public.
There would appear to be considerable pressure within the BJP to field Sushil Modi, who was deputy CM when the BJP and JD(U) ran an alliance government together with Mr Kumar as CM, as the party’s and NDA alliance’s prospective CM face. Ordinarily, this should have been the likely — and logical — course, for Mr Modi is a very experienced saffron leader of Bihar. However, in the present political context, there is a premium on extracting leaders and CM hopefuls from within the local backward or scheduled castes.
The BJP relies quite heavily on the votes of upper castes. While Mr Modi is not a part of this subset, he may not be deemed to be a son of the soil, since he came to Bihar from outside and there are people in the state BJP leadership who could be nursing ambitions. It is this conundrum of the BJP that has brought some life into its Janata Parivar rivals who are still being taunted by the saffron party for preparing to usher “jungle raj” back in Bihar, a reference to the days when Mr Yadav was CM and lawlessness was the norm.
Now the JD(U) and RJD, whatever their unresolved tensions, can toss back the question of CM at the BJP, which will doubtless lead the BJP-plus grouping, whatever the final shape it takes. Former CM Jitan Ram Manjhi has declared that his newly-formed outfit, Hindustan Awam Party, will contest the election in the BJP’s company. But this is too bald a statement of intent, for Mr Manjhi, who has begun to see himself as the leader of the “mahadalit” (more backward among the dalits) group. Mr Manjhi was earlier courting the RJD and is now seeking to tie up with the BJP. But the terms he would press for remain unclear. It is fairly straightforward that the Bihar election matters. A slip-up for the BJP in Bihar would mean a national setback after the adverse results in Delhi in February.
