Alliance games in Bihar intensifying

An announcement was made at the New Delhi residence of Samajwadi Party supremo Mulayam Singh Yadav on Sunday that Bihar’s ruling JD(U) of Chief Minister Nitish Kumar and former CM Lalu Prasad Yadav’s RJD had decided to fight the October Assembly polls together in order to take on the BJP, which will no doubt seek to go into the state poll chanting the mantra of Modi Sarkar. There is no reason to take the assertion at face value.

This is because there is so much left for the two Bihar parties to do before they can convince anyone that they have resolved their differences. Precisely because they were unable to compose their differences, the SP leader — in his capacity as the so-called elder statesman of the Janata lineage parties — had to step in. A committee of representatives from the JD(U) and RJD has been set up to decide their respective seat share in the event of a joint contest. This is difficult, as there is no straightforward formula that can be applied.

Besides, the question of leadership of the alliance — who will be CM if the secularists prevail — will remain a tricky area although Mr Kumar’s name was announced on Monday. But on Sunday there had been silence. This suggests that the decision will turn on which party wins how many seats, whatever the current announcements.

On the secular side, the Congress appears to be the elephant in the room. The SP supremo reportedly expressed unhappiness that
Mr Kumar had come to the meeting after consulting Congress vice-president Rahul Gandhi. The Congress is in favour of the non-BJP parties, including various shades of the Left, banding together for the Bihar election, and is not averse to Mr Kumar leading the anti-BJP front in the state later this year.

But Mr Mulayam Singh Yadav is wary of the Congress. On his home turf in Uttar Pradesh, he does not want the Congress to get any credit for showing up the BJP, for that implies sharing the non-BJP space, which he would like to monopolise if he can. Does this predispose him to a stance that favours Mr Lalu Yadav (who is now a kinsman through marriage) automatically in Bihar?

Bihar will be a key election to watch as it comes after the BJP’s defeat in the February Delhi Assembly election. While there are obvious alignment-related hiccups in the secular camp, the BJP-led NDA also has problems as the saffron party’s allies are angling for a larger share of seats. But the BJP will have the whip hand in guiding the alliance in the state as it controls the government at the Centre, and its Bihar allies are way too weak on their own.