This summer, the rain god has been kind to Kovai as it received twice the normal summer showers
The south west monsoon is set to start on June 5 and Coimbatore and a few other western districts are likely to get near normal rainfall, according to weather experts here.
Coimbatore; The south west monsoon is set to start on June 5 and Coimbatore and a few other western districts are likely to get near normal rainfall, according to weather experts here. “Near normal rainfall (-11 to -20 per cent) is expected in Coimbatore, Erode, Karur, Theni, Tirupur and Madurai districts during the ensuing SW monsoon. Coimbatore received normal rainfall last year,” said S. Panner Selvam, professor and head of Agro Climate Research Centre of TNAU.
During the south west monsoon, the normal rainfall for Coimbatore is 192.9 mm. But the expected rainfall this monsoon is 165mm, which is a deviation of minus 17.1 per cent. Similarly, Erode is expected to receive 180mm of rainfall from its normal 213 mm and Tirupur is expected to have 166mm from its normal 192.9mm rainfall.
This summer, the rain god has been kind to Kovai as it received twice the normal summer showers. The normal rainfall during the summer (March, April and May) is 136mm, but Coimbatore received almost 262 mm this year. It may, however, be challenging for water managers in most districts in the south zone including Ramanthapuram, Tuticorin, Sivagangai, Tirunelveli, Virudunagar, besides Thiruvarur and Nagapattinam in the Cauvery Delta Zone as they are expected to receive only below normal rainfall(> - 20% of the long term mean seasonal rainfall) in the SW monsoon.
There is comforting news for a few districts as normal rainfall (plus/minus 10 per cent of the long term mean seasonal rainfall) is expected in Ariyalur, Chennai, Cuddalore, Dharmapuri, Dindugal, Kancheepuram, Kanyakumari, Krishnagiri, Namakkal, Ooty, Perambalur, Pudukottai, Salem, Thanjavur, Thiruvallur, Thiruvannamalai, Trichy, Vellore and Villupuram districts.
Despite Tamil Nadu being a rain shadow area to South West Monsoon (SWM), the state receives more than 32 percent of the total annual rainfall from this monsoon.
Though districts like Dharmapuri, Krishnagiri, Salem, Nilgris and Kanyakumari are dominated by the SW monsoon, from the long period average, it could be observed that other districts in Western zone, North Eastern zone and Cauvery delta zone also receives 100-150 mm of rainfall during the SWM.
The district level rainfall forecast for the ensuing Southwest monsoon, 2015 (June to September) was developed at Agro Climate Research Cen tre,Tamil Nadu Agricultural University, Coimbatore based on the Southern Oscillation Index of summer season and Sea Surface Temperature values of Pacific and Indian Oceans using Australian Rainman International V.4.2.Software.
The historical rainfall data collected from Tamil Nadu Agricultural University Stations were used to represent the district rainfall information. In the absence of data from research station in a particular district, data from Rainman software were used. Rainfall expected during Southwest monsoon has a 60 per cent probability.
( Source : dc )
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