New Delhi: India is expected to clock a GDP growth of 8.4 per cent in the current financial year, spurred by policy reforms, fall in food inflation and lower fuel prices, says a Dun & Bradstreet report. According to the research firm, the partial unclogging of domestic policy logjam, focus on public investments in infrastructure, fall in food inflation and lower fuel prices along with improving income growth is likely strengthen aggregate demand.
"India's economic growth as measured by Gross Value Added (GVA) at basic prices to grow by 8.4 per cent in financial year 2016," D&B said in a research note. However, downside risks to this forecasts are fragile and tepid recovery in some developed markets, below normal monsoon, direction of FII flows following rate hike by the US Federal reserve and non-revival in corporate investment.
A sectoral analysis shows that the demand for automobiles across the categories is expected to receive a boost, on the back of the expected economic recovery in this fiscal. Meanwhile, the much awaited participation from Real Estate Investment Trusts (REITs) and Alternative Investment Funds (AIF) is expected to aid investments in the real estate sector. Tier II and Tier III cities are expected to drive demand for residential real estate.
In the telecom sector, demand for data services to be higher as service providers extend high speed 3G and 4G network to smaller towns. Moreover, high debt levels in the sector could impact expansion plans drawn out by the telecom players. Moreover, likely revival in economic activity during FY16 is expected to support consumption of various consumer products and drive the growth story of the Indian retail sector, the report added.
