Karachi: There was nothing new in the recent official statements, including those made by Pakistan’s national security adviser Sartaj Aziz, that the Islamic State of Iraq and Syria poses no threat to Pakistan. The statements nevertheless reflect a simplistic view of internal security. Such viewpoints originate from a superficial understanding of the threats facing Pakistan. The conventional security approach in Pakistan to check violence is confined to tribal militancy.
The threat perception about foreign terrorist groups has been the worst. Although the footprints of Al Qaeda had been identified in Pakistan, it was not considered important by the security apparatus and was always thought of as part of a global problem and as America’s responsibility. The persisting state of denial about the presence of the ISIS in Pakistan and the failure to foresee its impact on the country’s militant landscape will compound the problem.
The ISIS’ announcement of its organisational structure for Pakistan and Afghanistan, which it describes as “Khorasan province”, is a significant development. Many groups from the region had announced their allegiance to Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi, but the ISIS has formally accepted the allegiance of Hafez Saeed Khan, a former leader of the Tehreek-i-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) from Orakzai Agency, and appointed a former Afghan Taliban leader Mullah Abdul Rauf Khadim as his deputy.
The ISIS’ regional chapter could appoint local commanders across Pakistan and Afghan-istan. They would try to absorb smaller militant groups, thus, raising the threat of large scale attacks in both countries. However, it remains to be seen how the local groups will adapt to the ISIS framework. Additionally, violent confrontation between ISIS affiliates and other major groups in the region, such as, Al Qaeda, the TTP, Jamaat-ul-Ahrar and the Afghan Taliban cannot be ruled out. If the ISIS achieves some success in the region, it will certainly earn the wrath of major groups, which have a history of not tolerating emerging groups.
The ISIS factor has provided a lifeline to militant groups in the region. Groups that were unhappy with Al Qaeda’s strategies are now attracted to the ISIS. Their frustration with Al Qaeda was mainly due to the conviction that their ultimate objective of establishing an Islamic state could not be achieved only through terrorist attacks. The ISIS model showed them the importance of controlling territory in order to establish power on the ground. It is probably due to the increasing influence of the ISIS over Pakistani and Afghan terrorist groups that Al Qaeda has, for the first time, opened its doors to local groups. Before the change, at the group’s core was an exclusive club of Arab militants. This competition can intensify threats in Pakistan.
The argument that the ISIS has no space in Pakistan and Afghan-istan is based on two perceptions. First, the ISIS is a Salafi group, while the groups in this region mainly follow the Hanafi-Deobandi tradition. This is not a valid concern among terrorist groups, as their ideological boundaries have expanded to a point where the four traditions of Sunni Islam are acceptable. Also, foreign groups have already transformed local groups in many ways. The second argument that local groups are under Mullah Omar and will hardly be attracted towards ISIS has already been challenged in Afghanistan. The ISIS rejects nationalism and considers the Afghan Taliban its part.
While defections cannot be ruled out, it is unclear how the ISIS will impact the Afghan Taliban, particularly when Mullah Omar wants to establish an Islamic emirate in Afghanistan, while Baghdadi wants to extend his IS all over the world. The IS’ aspirations and the local groups’ inclination towards the ISIS notwith-standing, Al Qaeda is still strong in the region. The argument that the ISIS may not make such inroads in Pakistan as it has in Iraq and Syria does hold water.
The two situations are different, and the security structures of Pakistan can tackle worst case scenarios. But the issue is how to avoid such scenarios. The ISIS is a new destabilising actor in Pakistan. The local groups are attracted to the model it has provided. It is also aware of the value of the terrorist infrastructure that exists in Pakistan and Afghanistan. The radical sentiments of the masses make this region more attractive to the IS.
The writer is a security analyst
By arrangement with Dawn
