The results of the Assembly elections in Jammu and Kashmir and Jharkhand cannot be a real surprise to most observers. The BJP’s strong showing in the Jammu region, its best ever there, and the party nearly getting a majority on its own in Jharkhand, which no party has achieved since the state was formed in 2000, suggest that Prime Minister Narendra Modi remains the pivot around which the BJP’s poll machinery revolves.
Mr Modi campaigned with vigour and guile in both states. He did well in the end, although the BJP was not able to attain what it had set out to do. In J&K, it was not able to barge into the Kashmir Valley electorally. That was its primary aim. Its candidates faced humiliating defeats. In Jharkhand, the saffron party failed to take the state by storm and must rely on a minor ally to clear the halfway mark. The Congress, the BJP’s national rival, has done somewhat better than expected in Jammu, the Valley and in Ladakh — all the three regions of J&K which are conspicuously distinct from one another. But the party did poorly in Jharkhand.
This is consistent with its well below par recent record in the country’s Hindi-speaking areas, where it clearly has a lot of hard work ahead, in contrast with the BJP. With the BJP doing extremely well in Jharkhand, regional parties, known for providing faltering coalitions that have been the bane of the state, have been put firmly in the shade. Even the Jharkhand Mukti Morcha, the party that is synonymous with the formation of Jharkhand, appears a pale shadow of its former self after this election. It was lording it over as the key party of the ruling coalition before the polls.
It is now up to the BJP to provide good governance to bring Jharkhand back from the brink. In J&K, the regional parties are crucial, and have played a vital role in the Valley. It’s no different this time around. The People’s Democratic Party has emerged as the state’s biggest party, and merits the first call from the governor to explore the formation of a government. The National Conference was the incumbent. Way before the election it was evident that it had lost its popularity. Chief minister Omar Abdullah was deemed personally clean and modernistic, but was unable to forge links even with senior leaders of his own party. That has cost him dear. The nature of the J&K result puts the PDP on the horns of a dilemma. It might seek to align with the BJP to form the government, but this could make it highly unpopular in its core base. The results in both states, overall, reflect the ground situation.
