Now that the newly elected Bharatiya Janata Party government has won the much-talked-about confidence vote and chief minister Devendra Fadnavis is in the saddle, at least for some time, a question arises: What next? The BJP won the confidence motion by voice vote —the exercise of actual head-count was avoided by the new Speaker, Haribhau Bagde. Therefore, it is not yet known whether Mr Fadnavis’ government enjoys majority in the 288-member Assembly or is a “minority government”. Of course, there are many instances where so-called minority governments have functioned smoothly for many years. In 1991, the P.V. Narasimha Rao government in Delhi remained in minority for a long time before Rao engineered split in other parties and managed the “majority”. Indira Gandhi ran a minority government after the Congress split in 1968-69. She conducted the government on the support of Communists.
However, the case in Maharashtra is different. It is yet not clear whether the Nationalist Congress Party (NCP) will continue to lend its “unconditional support” to the government from outside. It is also not known whether its support is really “unconditional” or there are hidden “conditions”. Many were surprised when NCP announced its support to the BJP government even before the final results were declared. What’s the hurry, many political pundits asked. The stalwart and shrewd supremo of NCP, Sharad Pawar, raised many more questions than answers by tendering support. Had he not come forward to support his rival party that had humiliated the NCP by calling it a “Naturally Corrupt Party”, the BJP would have been forced to walk up to the Shiv Sena, its erstwhile ally, with a request to come along and join the Treasury benches. Sena would have then been in a position to dictate its terms and demand its pound of flesh in return for its support. However, since NCP support came in unilaterally and seemingly unsought for, the BJP altered its strategy and played hard ball with Shiv Sena. The result was that Sena could not join the government.
Now the situation is such that the BJP — which had vowed to institute inquiries against the alleged corruption of NCP ministers during the UPA regime and put the guilty behind bars — is at the mercy of the NCP’s 41 MLAs. Going by Mr Pawar’s track record, he is capable of pulling the carpet from under the Fadnavis government any time if the BJP leader fails to fall in line and go by the whims and wishes of the NCP. It is a difficult and awkward task for the BJP.
On the other hand, Shiv Sena, forced to sit in the Opposition benches, will feel embarrassed to work closely with the Congress, the party against which Sena leaders have been waging a war for the last 15 years.
Interestingly, while two sets of strange bed-fellows are seen on both sides of the House, the BJP and Shiv Sena, Right-winger Hindutva parties who have lived together for the last 25 years and shared wins and defeats, are on opposite sides.
What does this mean for the state administration and the people of Maharashtra? Leaving aside the political ramifications, the constant fear of losing power will not allow Mr Fadnavis to provide an efficient and transparent government that works for the welfare of the people of the state, as he repeatedly promised during the election campaign and on being made chief minister. It was Mr Fadnavis himself who had vehemently negated any possibility of taking any help from the NCP to form the government. “No, no, no!” he had shouted while participating in a TV debate just before the elections. He had also gone on record to say, “I would not run the government to save it”. However, he will be forced to do everything to save it and a pointer to that is that he allowed the confidence motion to be carried without going for the division of votes, which would have given the exact head-count.
A prolonged uncertainty about the fate of political leadership affects the administration as the decision-making process gets hampered due to lack of direction and firm stance on any issue. If Mr Fadnavis fails to dispel uncertainty, he will, perhaps, meet the same fate as his predecessor as voters have elected the new government with great hope of speedy implementation of welfare schemes and campaign promises. If that doesn’t happen, it’ll be a loss of face not only for the government but for the entire party that boasts of being “a party with difference” because, as it states, it is based on “Charitra ki Rajneeti”.
Given that, should Mr Fadnavis allow the NCP to be a part of his government? In simple words, Mr Fadnavis has no choice. He is in a no-win situation. One solution could have been to accommodate Shiv Sena in the government and thus take the united strength to 185, a strong position to run the government comfortably. But personal ego was allowed to take precedence over political expediency. Had both sides shown a little more maturity and respect for the other party, the alliance would not have broken in the first place. But that was not to happen.
As per the norms and practices of parliamentary affairs, for six months no one can try to bring down the government by bringing in a no confidence motion. Does that mean Mr Fadnavis is safe in the saddle till May 2015? Not necessarily. The government has to quit if any money bill tabled by the government is defeated. The next annual Budget would come up for discussion and voting thereafter in March 2015. Before that, in the Winter Session scheduled to commence early next month, supplementary demands would come up. That is also considered a money bill. If Mr Pawar finds it fit and joins hands with the Opposition parties — Sena and the Congress — to bring in a cut motion and gets it passed, it would be sudden death for the Fadnavis government.
The substance of the story is that the Fadnavis government, the first BJP government in the state, is living one day at a time and is not in a stable position despite winning 123 seats. To save the situation, the BJP will have to engineer a split in the Sena or Congress and make a dozen MLAs quit and get re-elected on BJP tickets, or it’ll have to suspend some Congress MLAs for a long period to reduce the strength of the House. Will the BJP take these routes? If it does, it’ll be no different from Congress rule. Only the name-plates would have changed.
The writer is a journalist, political analyst and a former Rajya Sabha MP
