The Assembly elections in Maharashtra and Haryana are no more just state-level polls, but hold the key to the direction that politics will take in the coming years. Prime Minister Narendra Modi is clearly seeking to hammer the last nail in the coffin of the coalition politics. And the Gandhi family, much battered following the humiliating defeat of the Congress in the Lok Sabha elections, is searching for ground to halt the Modi juggernaut.
The BJP is seeking clear mandates in both states after snapping ties with allies, apparently believing that the “Modi wave” is not only alive but gaining ground. The saffron party was a junior ally to the Shiv Sena in Maharashtra; barring the May Lok Sabha elections, it has not much to talk about in Haryana. That the BJP chose to go solo in both the states, albeit taking along a few fringe players in Maharashtra, pins down the belief within the party that it seeks to become what the Congress was in its glory days.
The carpet-bombing by Mr Modi does indicate that the Prime Minister seeks the same electoral magic that the late Indira Gandhi had enjoyed for over a decade. Whether he succeeds in carving out such a political space for himself will be known on October 19 when the verdict are known. However, the saffron juggernaut has seen a few hiccups since May.
The BJP lost the byelections for four Assembly seats in Uttarakhand and ceded much space to the Samajwadi Party in Uttar Pradesh, while its electoral slump was seen in Bihar where a determined grand alliance of the RJD-JD(U)-Congress stopped the party from a runaway success. The Rajasthan and Karnataka byelections were no different.
The wild swing in the fortunes of the BJP in a span of a few months was explained as the failure of the Modi government to tame the price rise, for which he had berated the Manmohan Singh-led UPA government in the Lok Sabha elections, claim leaders within the Congress. And, hence, political observers believe that Mr Modi runs the risk of putting his reputation at stake for local elections. It could take a severe beating if the results do not turn out to be favourable for the BJP.
On the other hand, the Gandhi family may well be aware of the fact that the byelections had not seen intensive campaigning by the BJP.
That Congress vice-president Rahul Gandhi had apparently been away from active politics after the May debacle is well known and he will be desperately seeking to put in a respectable performance by retaining at least one of the two poll-bound states to rally the party workers around himself, said a senior Congress leader. Mr Gandhi must be well aware that if the party were to lose both the states, where it is up against strong anti-incumbency, Congress workers may get excessively demoralised. In the process, he could lose much of his hold within the outfit as well, sources said.
Observers believe that it will become a daunting task to curb the chorus within the Congress for a clear and visible role for Ms Priyanka Gandhi Vadra if the party were to lose both the states badly. The elections are being watched closely by regional parties as well. The BJP, after bagging 282 Lok Sabha seats on its own, is seeking to emerge as a pan-India party. Such a scenario is a clear threat to the regional parties that enjoyed political dominance in their respective domains. Already, West Bengal politics looks headed for an interesting duel between the Trinamul Congress and the BJP, which, sources said, is attracting the Left cadres in big numbers.
Even though the people’s verdict in the two states is a week away, the writing on the wall is that Mr Modi remains unchallenged as far as campaigning and pulling in the crowds is concerned. And that could be the challenge for his opponents in the coming time, feel Congress leaders.
Though the state elections are largely fought on local issues, it is to be seen if a national leader can swing the votes. The Modi threat has brought the estranged Thackeray bro-thers — Uddhav and Raj — together. If the BJP emerges stronger after the elections in Maharashtra and Haryana, much of the political churning in other states going to polls may get hastened is the verdict of many political observers in Delhi. Bihar is slated to hold Assembly elections next year, followed by West Bengal and Gujarat in 2016. The political battle in states is set to keep commentators engaged in the coming years, which may follow the patterns shown by Maharashtra and Haryana.
