The question that seems to be haunting all the pundits and all political parties is, what will be the result of the Assembly polls in Maharashtra. True, there is an election in Haryana and it is no less important, given its proximity to Delhi. But Maharashtra is the second largest state in terms of representation to the Lok Sabha, with 48 seats, after Uttar Pradesh, with 80. Equally important is the fact that Mumbai, the commercial metropolis of India, is also the capital of Maharashtra.
Mumbai has been ruled by the Shiv Sena and the Bharatiya Janata Party for nearly 20 years, as the saffron alliance controls the Mumbai Municipal Corporation. Mumbai is also the black money capital of India, because it has the most expensive land, perhaps in the world, costliest residential flats and the richest people in India. The saffron parties have been shouting hoarse about corruption, but have done nothing to confront the menace in the city.
In fact, the biggest political beneficiaries of the black money generation in India are the BJP and the Shiv Sena. But the Congress and the Nationalist Congress Party have never challenged them on this issue, not even when they encircled the United Progressive Alliance government in Delhi. The Gujarati business community and the stock brokers who control the cartels in the market are also the passionate supporters of Narendra Modi and now even Amit Shah, the party president.
The Gujarati and Marwari business community in the city, which defines the wealth and poverty here, controls the levers of the economy, not only of the state, but also the country. To keep command over the political capital, Delhi, it is necessary to control the commercial empires here. That is why the elections in Mumbai-Maharashtra are extre-mely important. The business lobbies here always wanted Mumbai to be an independent city state or a bi-lingual or autonomous city state. But the mass movement led by Samyukta Maharashtra Samiti foiled that plan and, since then, the industrial and commercial interests have treated the Marathi people with contempt and disdain.
Shiv Sena, though a political partner of the BJP, was born out of that Marathi sentiment and angst. That is why there is always an undeclared hostility between the Gujarati-Marwari business community and the Marathi working class.
That hostility flared up last week when the Shiv Sena remained firm over the bulldozing manner of the Modi-led BJP and refused to go under the roller. Mr Modi wanted the Marathi manoos to accept secondary status and the otherwise diffident Uddhav Thackreay refused to budge.
Though not stated so explicitly, this is the core issue of the differences between the BJP and the Sena. Ever since Mr Modi became Prime Minister, the business community in the city has become almost belligerent. The reaction was inevitable, to quote Mr Modi himself, who believes the inaction-reaction theory in society.
But Mumbai, though the capital of Maharashtra, is not the sociologically equivalent of rural areas of the state. The common bond is that of being Marathi. When the state elections were announced, the Sena naturally took it for granted that it would be a major deciding factor in the strategy and seat allocation plan. But the Modi-Shah duo had other plans. They had decided that the BJP must have power in the commercial capital, too. That was the issue, and both of them being Gujarati, the conflict was only waiting to flare up.
Now, Mr Modi, having conquered America, wants to conquer Mumbai. But Mr Modi does not want to woo Uddhav Thackeray. He has decided to claim the inheritance of Shivaji Maharaj directly. All over the city, huge hoardings have come up to tell the Mumbaikars, that Mr Modi is the real hero of the legacy of Shivaji Maharaj.
Mr Modi is being projected by the Maharashtra BJP as its only icon, almost as aggressively as in the Lok Sabha polls. Hoardings all over the state give him the stature of guide, guru and god! Neither Atal Behari Vajpayee, nor any leader from the state is projected. At the actual campaign level, even the karyakartas of the Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh are not seen to be active.
But the mood in the party is not very confident, and many of the leaders are not even sure as to why the alliance broke down. Just about three weeks ago, it was taken for granted that the saffron alliance could cross 200 seats. Among themselves, the state leaders had even begun to distribute ministries.
The Congress alliance, according to consensus in the media and in the political circles, was not projected to get even 100 seats out of 288. Some of the overconfident types in the local BJP units even dared to say that the BJP-Shiv Sena would get 240 seats, as per the analysis of the Lok Sabha constituencies in which their alliance received the majority. They based their confident
assess-ment on the presumption that the Modi wave is still sweeping the country and once he returns from America, his image would be that of a global leader. Already, there were write-ups that the first Narendra (i.e. Swami Vivekananda) conquered America 120 years ago. And this is the second conquest of America, by Narendra Modi. The next adventure of Mr Modi would be to surpass Alexander the Great!
Therefore, with that kind of cult following, it is natural that the entire campaign would be around Mr Modi’s image. And yet, as stated above, the Sangh Parivar does not look confident.
The range of their mental state swings from aggression to depression, from hyper-confidence to palpable fear. The local leadership is almost totally dependent on Amit Shah for strategy and finance, and on
Mr Modi for a whirlwind tour of the state, during which he is expected to address two-dozen rallies. These rallies are expected to mesmerise the voters and they will throng to election booths to give the BJP a landslide and clear majority on its own.
In one masterstroke, Emperor Modi will wipe out the Congress, make the NCP irrelevant and cut Shiv Sena to size. This self-generated hype has not convinced the local leadership which is split vertically and is actually in panic.
It will obviously not be clear as to how the collective mind of Maharashtra and Marathi manoos will manifest on October 19. Will the Modi wave again sweep Maharashtra or will the Marathi manoos stand up and say: Enough is Enough!
The writer is a journalist and political commentator
