Maharashtra has long been a state is which no single party can hope to make a government on its own and must look for allies. The successful alliances have all been struck before an Assembly election. For the state polls to be held next month, it almost seemed that the right-wing Hindutva alliance of the Shiv Sena and BJP won’t come off. That hurdle appeared to have been crossed with the two parties agreeing Tuesday to share a certain number of seats to contest, but that too seems to have begun unravelling.
Hurdles still remain. Three smaller parties were part of a political understanding with these two principal anti-government players to form a “mahayuti (grand alliance)”. In their fierce wrangle the Sena and BJP haven’t left their smaller allies much, predictably leaving them fuming. If this loose end cannot be tied up, seats in the Assembly election that might be won or lost by small margins could become uncertain for the combine. Their opponents may expect to find some room here.
The question of CM has become a thorny issue too between the Sena and the BJP. Sena chief Uddhav’s name has been brought into play. The tradition has been from the time of Bal Thackeray for the Sena supremo not to be in the race for CM. Thus, Manohar Joshi was made CM when there had to be one from the Shiv Sena stables 15 years ago. With the present Sena leader himself being a candidate, the BJP is apt to wonder if it has to accept him as CM even if it wins more seats than its ally, as was the case in 2009. In that event, internal sabotage can’t be ruled out in the Shiv Sena-BJP lineup. If this occurs from one side, then the game may catch on in both camps.
On the whole, however, the ruling Congress-NCP alliance do look like the underdogs, especially when their showing in the May Lok Sabha election is considered. Although they face an anti-incumbency of 15 years, on their side too the fight for seat-share has been intense.
The two fared well below par in the parliamentary election, but the NCP won more seats than the Congress. This has made the NCP fight hard to get to contest the same number of seats as the Congress, something which has not happened before. Thus, the struggle within the alliance is for a new benchmark to be established between the “secular” allies in order to establish the parity principle. If the tide is with the BJP, all this could be of academic interest. If not, an interesting game lies ahead.
