NEW DELHI: India’s agriculture production may dip in 2014 after a consecutive three years of bumper crop harvest if El Nino torpedoes monsoon rainfall, the economic survey for the year 2013-14 said, adding that it will lead to putting pressure on food prices. With the Met department predicting 71 per cent probability of a sub-normal or deficient monsoon and spatial distribution of rainfall, the pre-Budget document said, the agriculture output is likely to be impacted and consequently food prices.
It, however, claimed that there appears to be “no cause for alarm on the El Nino impact” as the country is well placed on foodgrains availability with record domestic production and huge stocks in the central pool.
The Met department has projected below normal monsoon at 93 per cent of the long period average for this year. Till June, rainfall is deficient by 43 per cent. As a result, sowing has delayed and total areas planted to kharif crops is also lower by 43 per cent at 182.4 lakh hectares till July 4.
The survey also called for investments, especially in infrastructure, to revive growth and jobs. On unemployment, the survey said that though the rate may be lower than what is prevailing now in developed economies, the number of unemployed is significant in absolute terms.
On environment, it said that new climate deals must ensure that the developing countries are granted the required “carbon space” and “development space”.
The Economic Survey has also called for proper measures to address issues related to the elementary and secondary education system in the country.
It also stressed on the need to revamp the midday meal scheme to attract children to schools.
The survey, tabled in Parliament on Wednesday, claimed that both the Centre and state governments are set to benefit from the digitisation of cable television in India as it would lead to manifold increase in tax collection.
Survey Highlights
Tourism
According to the Economic Survey, there is an indication of revival in world GDP and trade growth in general and of developed countries in particular that can help in revival of the tourism sector along with shipping. The sector is projected to grow at an annual average rate of 7.9 per cent from 2013 to 2023. It suggested several measures such as creating world class infrastructure even by PPP, addressing taxation issues, skill and etiquette training and special focus on cleanliness at tourist sites and safety of tourists to encourage tourism.
Agriculture
The Survey says that agriculture production may be impacted this year if El Nino torpedoes rainfall. This would eventually put pressure on food prices. However, it said that there appears to be “no cause for alarm on the El Nino impact” as the country is well placed on foodgrains availability with record domestic production and huge stocks in the central pool. The survey called for “immediate attention” on marketing reforms, adoption of new technologies to boost crop yields and direct cash transfer of food-fertiliser subsidies. It suggested the Centre to review APMC Act, Essential Commodities Act and Land Tenancy Act.
Subsidy
The Economic Survey has suggested payment of subsidy in cash for those below poverty line through technologies like biometric identification. It pointed that not all the money put into subsidy schemes reaches the poor while attributing rise in fiscal deficit after 2008-09 to increase in subsidies. It elaborated that programmes such as food subsidy have huge overhead costs. In other cases, such as the fertiliser subsidy, the expenditures generate a distorted resource allocation that hampers productivity, it said. It said that food subsidy has been increasing due to the widening gap between economic cost of procurement by the FCI and the central issue price fixed under the PDS.
Jobs
The proportion of working-age population in India is likely to increase to more than 64 per cent by 2021, with a large number of young persons in the 20-35 age group. The average age of the Indian population will be 29 years in 2020. To bridge the demand-supply mismatch of skilled persons, the National Skill Development Corporation has approved 158 proposals till March 2014. The overall commitment to 129 training proposals and 29 sector skill councils stands at Rs 2215.89 crore. A total of 19,54,300 persons have received job-oriented skills training through NSDC skilling partners since 2010.
Power
The Economic Survey said that power generation fell short by nearly 8 billion units of the target of 975 billion units in the last financial year. However, the power generation in 2013-14 was higher by 6 per cent compared to production of 912.06 billion units in 2012-13. The government has set a target of generating over 1,023 billion units of power during in the current financial year.
Milk
India recorded peak production of milk at 132.43 million tonnes in 2012-13, becoming the top milk producer globally. Milk production in the year 2011-12 was 127.9 MT, according to the National Dairy Development Board data. The Economic Survey stated that India accounts for 17 per cent of world production of milk. Meanwhile, the survey pegged horticulture production at 265 MT for 2012-13, even higher than foodgrains production. India ranks first in the productivity of grapes, banana, cassava, and papaya.
Research
India’s expenditure on research and development in purchasing power parity is around five times lower than that of China. The Economic Survey said that India's innovation capacity is also lower than that of the other Brics nations, except Russia. It, however said, that growth of research and development has been consistently high at near 20 per cent in the last few years.
Schemes
The Economic Survey calls for urgent revamp of the MNREGA saying the scheme needs to be more development-oriented and its misuse should be prevented. It also said that there is a need for revamp or reorganisation of some of the ongoing social-sector schemes, including the National Rural Livelihoods Mission, NRHM and Sarva Shiksha Abhiyan. It said that most schemes have not achieved desired results due to poor delivery mechanism. Pointing out flaws in the MNREGA, it said: “Though the act is panchayat-centric and demand based, on the ground there is lack of principal role in planning, execution and monitoring by the panchayati raj institutions.”
Private role in NRHM
The survey says that there is a need to consider PPP in National Rural Health Mission with "careful regulatory oversight."
Sarv Shiksha Abhiyan
Regarding SSA, the survey said that there is a need to revisit provision of school within 1 km of radius of every habitation in the RTE Act.
