New Delhi: The anxiously awaited June to September monsoons is likely to be less than normal in large swathes of the country, as the India Meteorological Department (IMD) has forecast a below-normal monsoon this year due to the El-Nino effect.
Minister of state for science and technology Jitendra Singh on Monday told reporters, “The monsoon season rainfall for the country as a whole between June and September is likely to be below normal at 93 per cent of the long period average with a model error of plus/minus four per cent.”
The four-month-long monsoon season started on a weak note as the annual rains arrived over country’s southern coast about five days behind the average date of 1 June.
Rainfall in July is seen at 93 per cent of the long-term average, rising to 96 per cent August, Mr Singh said.
With a predicted reduction of two per cent from the one made initially, the below average rainfall is expected to affect the country’s agricultural output.
President Pranab Mukherjee on Monday said the new government is “alert” about the possibility of a below-normal monsoon this year and is preparing contingency plans. With 60 per cent of the farm land being rain-fed, he said that the government will “complete the long-pending irrigation projects on priority.”
The Met department had earlier predicted a below normal monsoon at 95 per cent. The less rainfall is stated to be because of the El-Nino condition, whose chances of occurrence are as high as 70 per cent. The condition is associated with the warming of sea temperature.
India Meteorological Department (IMD) director general L. S. Rathore said the condition is expected to peak around the end of July and early August but as of now, “it is at the threshold of being qualified as a weak El Nino.”
The last time India faced a drought with rainfall below the normal range was in 2009 and prior to that, in 2004 and 2002 with El Nino hitting the Indian monsoon season on each occasion.
Secretary Earth Science Shailesh Nayak said the government had already initiated steps when the Met department came out with the initial forecast about below normal rainfall in April. According to the Met department, rainfall during July is expected to be 93 per cent and 96 per cent in August.
