Amid an explosion of violence against vulnerable sections of the society in Uttar Pradesh, the hard-to-ignore writing on the wall is a tectonic shift in the politics of the state. For over two-and-a-half decades, UP has been a benefactor of the proponents of caste politics. Those who thought that UP had been their fiefdom were rudely woken up by the mighty verdict on May 16 and since then some of them are out on the streets with a vengeance.
The ruling Samajwadi Party had been preparing for the Lok Sabha for more than a year, with party leaders singing peons of Mulayam Singh Yadav, that he would become Prime Minister. The SP had a mighty downward swing from 22 in the 2009 Lok Sabha elections to five (effectively four), with the party reduced to just family members as far as their presence in the Lok Sabha is concerned.
BSP chief Mayawati had a grand plan, that she would be the direct beneficiary of a Narendra Modi-triggered polarisation in the state, as Muslims would have no choice but to vote for her in a bid to punish Mulayam Singh Yadav for the Muzaffarnagar riots. In her ambition, she gave party tickets to a large number of Muslims, OBC and upper-caste nominees. But she too was jolted with a complete wipeout as her core constituency of dalits, particularly the youth among them, deserted her on the grounds that she had been persona non grata in the Lok Sabha elections. The rout of the Congress has been so comprehensive that the party cadres are demoralised to the extent that they will take years to forget the 2014 shock.
In the 2014 verdict, the message is loud and clear for the political pundits — that it would be hazardous to predict the trend on the basis of the past as the substantial youth voters seem not being prisoner of caste-based identities and are yearning for better lives.
Though UP has given too many Prime Ministers, the sad commentary is the abject poverty in the constituencies their represented in the Lok Sabha. From Allahabad (Nehru) to Balia (Chandra-shekhar) to Lucknow (A.B. Vajpayee) to Rae Bareli (Indira Gandhi), decay in towns and villages are the common constant one would come across.
Incidentally, Ms Mayawati had been getting votes from among the dalits because she was seen as a protector of their honour. When in power, she had ensured that no one touched dalits. But out of power, there is no end to rape and gangrape of dalit girls and women. The youth among the dalits have seemingly come out of the shadow of Ms Mayawati to look upon Prime Minister Narendra Modi as their protector and benefactor.
They seemingly feel that Mr Modi could only crush the “goonda” politics of the SP. And Mr Modi’s “56-inch” broad chest barb to Mr Mulayam Yadav was lapped with lots of vicarious pleasure among the dalits.
The BJP’s sweep in UP was all due to Mr Modi and his development card. And the BJP riding on Mr Modi’s aggression against politics of dynasty embodies in the SP’s ways of politics has endeared the party to dalits, Most Backward Castes, besides non-Yadav OBCs. And hence, there is little doubt that the BJP would be the frontrunner to power in the 2017 UP state polls, after broadening its appeal among various sections of the society who, otherwise, used to vote for the SP or the BSP.
