Thais have been waiting for democracy since 1932, when the absolute monarchy was overthrown. They are still waiting. The imposition of military rule is only the latest in a series of rude interruptions of civilian government by the Army, which has staged 18 coups since then, 11 of them successful. Civilian rule itself has been no democratic idyll, with some administrations managed from behind the scenes by the military, others chaotic coalitions, others still torn by clashes between wilful leaders of micro parties.
The broad story of Thai politics over the years has been one in which the country’s establishment, the bureaucracy, the judiciary, the royal court, the Army, and the Bangkok middle class has used the political system, including its default mechanism of the military coup, to play out their own quarrels and rivalries. This changed when Thaksin Shinawatra, a former policeman who had become a highly successful businessman, arrived on the political scene.
There was much that was problematic about Thaksin and his family, but the fundamental fact was that the old establishment could not cope with the reversal of fortune which had taken place.
Thai coups in the past have usually been accepted with a shrug and a smile, but Thaksin’s supporters have signalled repeatedly that they will not take a coup lying down.There could be dangerous days ahead.
