Two broad conclusions can be drawn from the results of the 2014 general election. First, that the BJP, till recently a party of north, central and western India, now has a presence all over the country. And second, that this is not just a miserable defeat for the Congress, but something akin to an existential crisis that could, if not properly managed, push it towards extinction very fast.
Winning in Madhya Prad-esh, Rajasthan and Gujarat is not surprising for the BJP, it rules the states and its governments are quite popular. Vasundhara Raje, who was disliked by the electorate during the final years of her rule, came back to power with a bang in December and still enjoys goodwill; the other two are undisputed leaders in their respective states.
Even winning big in Maharashtra is hardly a big story — the Congress-NCP alliance has been in power for 15 years and has come to be known as a byword of corruption and arrogance. The irrigation scam in which NCP leaders were named and the suicide of farmers in Vidarbha had angered voters and it was only a matter of time before the combine got a shock. The victory margin is very impressive but not unexpected given that the BJP-Sena have ruled the state in the past.
But winning seats in Tamil Nadu and West Bengal indicates that the party has now made deep inroads in states that were closed to it. Both states have remained immune to the party’s brand of politics, preferring their own regional forces. The Congress had ceased to exist in both a long time ago and it was assumed that power would be shared between local parties.
That assumption has now been challenged. In Karnataka, where the BJP got thrown out in the last polls, its tieup with B.S. Yeddyurappa was supposed to be a strategically wrong move. Yet, it has confounded all predictions and emerged as the single-largest victor.
Probably the most astonishing outcome of this election is in Assam, where the BJP has won handsomely. In 1999, the party won two seats in the state, but this time the rhetoric against Bangladeshis (read Muslims) hit home and voters flocked to the BJP in large numbers. A presence in the Northeast is a huge plus for the BJP as it can use it as a base to spread through the region.
Barring Kerala, the last holdout, the BJP now has a foothold, however tenuous, in every state. This makes it the only national party in the Lok Sabha; the Congress, despite its 12 Chief Ministers, has drawn a blank this time round in several states. This has serious portents for the party in the next round of state polls, since it could end up shrinking dramatically over the next five years.
It is not just the numbers that should worry the Congress, though those are obviously important. It is the sheer disdain shown by the voters who were unimpressed by its vision, or lack of it.
A 272-plus presence in the Lok Sabha will give the BJP tremendous clout and power. It can push through any legislation it wants to, with virtually no Opposition to block it. The BJP’s, or rather Narendra Modi’s, real challenge will be to manage expectations, since his frenzied suppo-rters will want results as soon as possible — no excuses will be accepted. Give me 60 months, he had said. He has now got them.
